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Journal Article
Bankers, regulators absorb lessons of Silicon Valley Bank failure as new tests emerge
Orrenius, Pia M. (2023-09-29)
Ben Munyan, director of supervisory policy in the Banking Supervision Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, discusses the challenges the banking industry faces in an era of rapidly rising interest rates and how Texas institutions have fared.
Southwest Economy

Briefing
Relative Price Changes Are Unlikely to Account for Recent High Inflation
Wolman, Alexander L. (2022-03)
March 2021 marked the first month of the ongoing high inflation episode in the U.S. Last September, I analyzed the first five months of this episode through the lens of the distribution of price changes for all PCE components. A small fraction of expenditures accounted for much of the high inflation in those months. In this Economic Brief, I provide a related analysis and incorporate a new summary statistic for the distribution of relative price changes. In the last four months, high inflation has not been concentrated in a small fraction of expenditures, deviating from the relationship we ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 10

Journal Article
The Long-Run Costs of Higher Inflation
L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; DeLuca, Martin (2023-10-17)
This Economic Commentary provides an overview of several frictions and the channels through which they affect economic welfare under elevated trend inflation above 2 percent. These frictions, associated with financial transactions, price and wage stickiness, and cognitive limitations, suggest that inflation imposes significant costs on society. Higher inflation may lead to a steeper Phillips curve, a situation which increases the volatility of inflation and interest rates.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2023 , Issue 17

Newsletter
The Rise (and Fall) of Inflation During the Early 2020s
Ihrig, Jane E.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Wolla, Scott A. (2023-08)
Inflation has been on many people’s minds. There are several measures of inflation available, and each one plays a role in providing a more complete understanding of inflation’s causes and effects. This Page One Economics® Econ Primer describes key measures of inflation, including the consumer price index, and how the Federal Open Market Committee pays particular attention to these measures as it makes policy decisions—adjusting its policy stance when necessary to move the economy toward maximum employment and price stability.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectations
Chiang, Yu-Ting; LaBelle, Jesse (2022-10-13)
The private sector may slightly underestimate the short-term impact of monetary policy surprises on inflation but may predict longer-term effects fairly well.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Death of the Phillips Curve?
Murphy, Anthony (2018-01-01)
Are inflation dynamics well captured by Phillips Curve models, or has this framework become less relevant over time? The evidence for the U.S. suggests that the slopes of the price and wage Phillips Curves? the short-run inflation-unemployment trade-offs ? are low and have got a little flatter. For example, the recursive estimate of the unemployment coefficient in the core PCE Phillips Curve has fallen a little from -0.09 to -0.07 since the Great Recession. However, the decline is not statistically significant. Dynamic forecasts from the wage and price Phillips Curves estimated using data ...
Working Papers , Paper 1801

Discussion Paper
How Equitable Has the COVID Labor Market Recovery Been?
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2022-06-30)
One of the two monetary policy goals of the Federal Reserve System— one-half of our dual mandate—is to aim for “maximum employment.” However, labor market outcomes are not monolithic, and different demographic and economic groups experience different labor market outcomes. In this post, we analyze heterogeneity in employment rates by race and ethnicity, focusing on the COVID-19 recession of March-April 2020 and its aftermath. We find that the demographic employment gaps temporarily increased during the onset of the pandemic but narrowed back by spring 2022 to close to where they were ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220630a

Briefing
A Rate Cycle Unlike Any Other
Mulloy, Conner; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Henry, Erin (2023-08)
Since the Federal Open Market Committee began raising the federal funds rate in March 2022, people have speculated on the trajectory of both monetary policy and the economy. By looking at previous rate cycles, this article compares historical monetary policy cycles with the current period. We find the current cycle to be unique in terms of both the speed at which interest rates rose and the movement of inflation during the series of rate hikes.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 26

Journal Article
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
Daly, Mary C. (2022-04-22)
The inflation outlook combined with a strong labor market leave no doubt that further monetary policy tightening is appropriate. The question is, how much and how quickly? The appropriate path of policy confronts the economic headwinds immediately ahead while also laying the groundwork for the economy we want in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Center for Business and Economic Research, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 10 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-10-14)
Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock led to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

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