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Working Paper
A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices
We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates, and equity prices in the U.S. Their simultaneous changes enable us to distinguish between a systematic and "exogenous" response to monetary-policy news. And, those tail risks' co-movements are accounted for in quantifying the magnitude and persistence of their responses to key shocks. We find that: (i) in the medium-term, all four tail risks respond significantly and contemporaneously to domestic and foreign monetary-policy announcements, except for the equity tail risk to ...
Journal Article
The failure resolution of Lehman Brothers
This study examines the resolution of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in order to clarify the sources of complexity in its resolution and to inform the debate on appropriate resolution mechanisms for financial institutions. The authors focus on the settlement of Lehman?s creditor and counterparty claims, especially those relating to over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, where much of the complexity of Lehman?s bankruptcy resolution was rooted. They find that creditors? recovery rate was 28 percent, below historical averages for firms comparable to Lehman. Losses were ...
Speech
SOFR and the transition from LIBOR: remarks at the SIFMA C&L Society February Luncheon, New York City
Remarks at the SIFMA C&L Society February Luncheon, New York City.
Journal Article
Can Broader Access to Direct CCP Clearing Reduce the Concentration of Cleared Derivatives?
In November 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis, leaders from the Group of Twenty (G20) nations, representing the world’s largest economies, convened in Washington, DC, to develop a new regulatory framework to help foster financial stability. They came out of that Washington summit with several noteworthy ideas.1 One was to strengthen over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets, where defaults had been serious problems during the financial crisis. In particular, G20 leaders agreed to move more of this business onto regulated exchanges and central counterparties (CCPs) as a way ...
Speech
901 Days
Remarks at Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), New York City.
Discussion Paper
Towards Increasing Complexity: The Evolution of the FX Market
The foreign exchange market has evolved extensively over time, undergoing important shifts in the types of market participants and the mix of instruments traded, within a trading ecosystem that has become increasingly complex. In this post, we discuss fundamental changes in this market over the past twenty-five years and highlight some of the implications for its future evolution. Our analysis suggests that maintaining a healthy price discovery process and fostering a level playing field among participants are areas to watch for challenges. The consequences of the evolution of the FX ...
Newsletter
What’s the Potential Impact of Force Majeure Claims on Financial Stability?
This article examines the potential aggregate impact on financial stability of several bilateral force majeure claims filed at approximately the same time in one or more markets. One and a half years after the pandemic started, I take stock of the developments involving force majeure claims thus far, and conclude that the likelihood of these claims creating a systemic threat to financial stability is low.
Speech
The LIBOR Countdown Has Not Stopped
Remarks at the IMN Virtual Investors' Conference on LIBOR.
Speech
A Resolution for 2021: No New LIBOR
Remarks at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association’s LIBOR Transition Forum (delivered via videoconference).
Speech
Opening Remarks: Public Policy Symposium on OTC Derviatives Clearing
A speech delivered by Charles Evans before the Public Policy Symposium on OTC Derivative Clearing on September 3, 2010, in Chicago, IL.