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Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 66.
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Journal Article
Barreling down the road to recession?
Journal Article
Figuring out the oil price puzzle
Working Paper
Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity: an international perspective
Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this paper, we employ Bayesian methods with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity to identify the various sources of oil price shocks and economic fluctuation and to assess their effects on U.S. economic activity. We find that changes in oil prices are best understood as endogenous. Oil price shocks in the 1970s and early 1980s and the 2000s reflect differing mixes of shifts in oil supply and demand, and differing sources of oil price shocks have differing effects on ...
Journal Article
Oil price shocks and inflation risk
Oil price shocks appear to have only transitory effects on headline inflation and virtually no impact on measures of underlying trend inflation.
Working Paper
Oil shocks and the zero bound on nominal interest rates
Beginning in 2009, in many advanced economies, policy rates reached their zero lower bound (ZLB). Almost at the same time, oil prices started rising again. We analyze how the ZLB affects the propagation of oil shocks. As these shocks move inflation and output in opposite directions, their effects on economic activity are cushioned when monetary policy is constrained. The burst of inflation from an oil price increase lowers real interest rates at the ZLB and stimulates the interest-sensitive component of GDP, offsetting the usual contractionary effects. In fact, if the increase in oil prices ...
Working Paper
An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity
The effect of oil price shocks on U.S. economic activity seems to have changed since the mid-1990s. A variety of explanations have been offered for the seeming change?including better luck, the reduced energy intensity of the U.S. economy, a more flexible economy, more experience with oil price shocks and better monetary policy. These explanations point to a weakening of the relationship between oil prices shocks and economic activity rather than the fundamentally different response that may be evident since the mid-1990s.> ; Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world ...
Speech
A look inside a key economic debate: how should monetary policy respond to price increases driven by supply shocks?
Remarks by Eric S. Rosengren, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, to the Massachusetts Chapter of NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association, May 4, 2011
Journal Article
Speculation in the oil market
Disentangling the true drivers of oil prices is a critical first step for allocating resources and designing good policy.
Journal Article
A falling dollar raises inflation in the Gulf
Speech
The national and regional economic outlook
Remarks at the Center for Economic Development, Syracuse, New York.