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Journal Article
City growth and industry employment reallocation
Cities initially more specialized in older technologies may have had more difficulty adapting to newer technologies because skills in initially dominant industries were not useful to new industries.
Report
Propensity score matching, a distance-based measure of migration, and the wage growth of young men
This paper estimates the effect of U.S. internal migration on real wage growth between the movers' first and second jobs. Our analysis of migration differs from previous research in three important aspects. First, we exploit the confidential geocoding in the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) to obtain a distance-based measure. Second, we let the effect of migration on wage growth differ by schooling level. Third, we use propensity score matching to measure the effect of migration on the wages of those who move. ; We develop an economic model and use it to (i) assess the ...
Discussion Paper
Smart places, getting smarter: facts about the young professional population in New England states
Each of the New England states is wrestling with how to retain a skilled workforce and sustain economic competitiveness while facing an aging population. In particular, each state fears that it is losing young, educated workers to other states and regions. This paper builds on earlier research about trends in the region?s young professionals: it looks at the supply of young professionals in each state to better understand trends in that population. The analysis reveals that, while there are some differences between the New England states, all are facing slow growth or no growth in its ...
Newsletter
How do sudden large losses in wealth affect labor force participation?
The authors assess whether the sudden large losses in household wealth due to recent declines in stock and home values have significantly affected the U.S. labor market. They find that the overall labor force participation rate would be 0.7 percentage points lower were it not for the declines in the values of stocks and houses over the 2006?10 period.
Journal Article
Gross job flows between plants and industries
A remarkable feature of the current U.S. economic expansion has been its ability to shrug off the adverse effects of financial crises and economic slowdowns around the world for nearly two years. Recently, however, foreign-sector developments have triggered a sizable shift in the sectoral composition of U.S. employment. By early 1999, employment growth in the goods-producing sector was still humming along. Historically, substantial shifts in labor demand between sectors have been correlated with the business cycle. But recent developments are unusual and highlight our incomplete ...
Newsletter
Strategies for improving economic mobility of workers - a conference preview
On November 15-16, 2007, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Economic Research Department and Consumer and Community Affairs Division, along with the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, will cosponsor a conference to present research on policies, practices, and initiatives affecting low-wage workers.
Report
Labor market pooling and occupational agglomeration
This paper examines the micro-foundations of occupational agglomeration in U.S. metropolitan areas, with an emphasis on labor market pooling. Controlling for a wide range of occupational attributes, including proxies for the use of specialized machinery and for the importance of knowledge spillovers, we find that jobs characterized by a unique knowledge base exhibit higher levels of geographic concentration than do occupations with generic knowledge requirements. Further, by analyzing co-agglomeration patterns, we find that occupations with similar knowledge requirements tend to ...
Working Paper
Structural change in an open economy
We study the importance of international trade in structural change. Our framework has both productivity and trade cost shocks, and allows for non-unitary income and substitution elasticities. We calibrate our model to investigate South Korea's structural change between 1971 and 2005. We find that the shock processes, propagated through the model's two main transmission mechanisms, non-homothetic preferences and the open economy, explain virtually all of the evolution of agriculture and services labor shares, and the rising part of the hump-shape in manufacturing. Counterfactual exercises ...
Working Paper
The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate
How cyclical is the U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR)? We examine its response to exogenous state-level business cycle shocks, finding that the LFPR is highly cyclical, but with a significantly longer-lived response than the unemployment rate. The LFPR declines after a negative shock for about four years—well beyond when the unemployment rate has begun to recover—and takes about eight years to fully recover after the shock. The decline and recovery of the LFPR is largely driven by individuals with home and family responsibilities, as well as by younger individuals spending time ...