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Journal Article
Index numbers and the measurement of real GDP
Motley, Brian (1992)
The measures of real GDP and inflation are aggregates of many individual prices and quantities. These variables are measured using fixed-weight indexes, which can give a misleading impression of price and output changes in a particular year if the structures of output and relative prices are different from those in the base year. This measurement problem adds to the uncertainties facing policymakers. ; These ambiguities result from the definitions of output and inflation in use. This article describes alternative measures of growth and inflation that have a stronger theoretical basis and ...
Economic Review

Conference Paper
Why has potential growth declined? The case of Germany
Siebert, Horst (1992)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth
Iwata, Shigeru; Hess, Gregory D. (1997)
If economic time series behave asymmetrically, then an interpretation of economic fluctuations based on linear time series models could be misleading. Beaudry and Koop (1993) recently argued that for post war U.S. GDP data there exists a statistically significant difference in persistence between negative and positive shocks. Their finding, if true, would be quite interesting since it would bring a new perspective to the literature on business cycle, which has been dominated by two conflicting views: the trend-reverting view of Blanchard (1981) and the permanent view of Campbell and Mankiw ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 97-02

Journal Article
Shifting data: a challenge for monetary policymakers
Fernald, John G.; Wang, Stephanie (2005)
A familiar old saw about the conduct of monetary policy is that it's like trying to drive a car while looking only in the rearview mirror. The idea is that policymakers are trying to steer a course that will keep the economy close to full employment with low, stable inflation, while their only knowledge of the road ahead is based on data about the past. ; As if this situation weren't challenging enough, the rearview mirror sometimes gives a distorted reflection, in the sense that the data policymakers see at any one point in time are often later revised. This Economic Letter discusses a ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Speech
The road to recovery: Brooklyn
Dudley, William (2011)
Remarks by President Dudley at the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce Brooklyn Borough Hall, Brooklyn, New York.
Speech , Paper 58

Journal Article
Long-run trends in labor supply
Motley, Brian (1997)
The recent "benign" combination of strong output growth and low inflation has led to speculation that the potential growth rate of real GDP has increased. This paper examines trends in labor supply to see whether this source of GDP growth might have accelerated. Discussions of labor supply often focus on labor force participation. But other considerations--such as the length of the workweek, the amount of time spent away from work and the demographic structure of the population--also have been important in causing trend shifts in labor supply. My ...
Economic Review

Newsletter
Economy on cruise control through 2007
Engel, Emily; Strauss, William A. (2006-08)
According to participants in the Chicago Fed's annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the outlook for 2006 is for the U.S. economy to expand at a rate slightly above its trend, with unemployment edging lower. Since energy prices are expected to moderate, inflation is forecasted to fall this year. Light vehicle sales are predicted to remain steady.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Aug

Journal Article
Is there evidence of the new economy in U.S. GDP data?
Kouparitsas, Michael A. (2005-01)
This article tests whether the trend growth rate of U.S. GDP changed significantly over the "new economy" period from 1996 to 2003. Based on estimates from widely used methods of trend/cycle decomposition, the author finds that the trend growth rate of GDP was not significantly higher over this period. This suggests that the U.S. was the same old economy in the latter half of the 1990s.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 29 , Issue Q I

Report
What was behind the M2 breakdown?
Peristiani, Stavros; Robinson, Kenneth J.; Lown, Cara S. (1999)
A deterioration in the link between the M2 monetary aggregate and GDP, along with large errors in predicting M2 growth, led the Board of Governors to downgrade the M2 aggregate as a reliable indicator of monetary policy in 1993. In this paper, we argue that the financial condition of depository institutions was a major factor behind the unusual pattern of M2 growth in the early 1990s. By constructing alternative measures of M2 based on banks? and thrifts? capital positions, we show that the anomalous behavior of M2 in the early 1990s disappears. Specifically, after accounting for the effect ...
Staff Reports , Paper 83

Journal Article
An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001
Krane, Spencer D. (2003-01)
During the second half of the 1990s, forecasters made large and persistent underpredictions of GDP growth; subsequently, they missed the drop off into the recession of 2001. Forecasters do not appear to have behaved unusually during this period: Their out-period forecasts were not far from their perceptions of longer-run trends. This suggests that the forecast errors in 1996-2001 likely reflected some unusual behavior in the economy.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 27 , Issue Q I

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