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Working Paper
An experimental analysis of contingent capital triggering mechanisms
This paper reports an experiment that evaluates three regimes for triggering the conversion of contingent capital bonds into equity: (a) a ?regulator? regime, where socially motivated regulators make conversion decisions based on observed prices, (b) a ?fixed trigger? regime where a price threshold triggers a mandatory conversion, and (c) a ?prediction market? regime where we supplement the regulator?s information set with the results of a prediction market that elicits traders? perceived likelihood of a conversion. Consistent with theory, we observe informational and allocative ...
Working Paper
Federal Reserve Structure and the Production of Monetary Policy Ideas
We evaluate the decentralized structure of the Federal Reserve System as a mechanism for generating and processing new ideas on monetary policy over the 1960 - 2000 period. We document the introduction of monetarism, rational expectations, credibility, transparency, and other monetary policy ideas by Reserve Banks into the Federal Reserve System. We argue that the Reserve Banks were willing to support and develop new ideas due to internal reforms to the FOMC that Chairman William McChesney Martin implemented in the 1950s and the increased ties with academia that developed in this period. ...
Working Paper
Macroprudential Policy: Results from a Tabletop Exercise
This paper presents a tabletop exercise designed to analyze macroprudential policy. Several senior Federal Reserve officials were presented with a hypothetical economy as of 2020:Q2 in which commercial real estate and nonfinancial debt valuations were very high. After analyzing the economy and discussing the use of monetary and macroprudential policy tools, participants were then presented with a hypothetical negative shock to commercial real estate valuations that occurred in the second half of 2020. Participants then discussed the use of the tools during an incipient downturn. Some of the ...
Working Paper
Fixed Prices and Regulatory Discretion as Triggers for Contingent Capital Conversion: An Experimental Examination
An unresolved issue regarding the implementation of 'contingent capital' bonds regards identifying the best mechanism for triggering the conversion of debt into equity. This paper reports a laboratory experiment that builds on previous work to evaluate the relative desirability of two leading candidate mechanisms: a price informed regulator and a mechanistic fixed-price trigger. We find that the conversion rule in effect determines the desirability of these two mechanisms. When the conversion increases incumbent equity value, a fixed trigger is preferable, but when the conversion decreases ...
Journal Article
Regulating bank capital structure to control risk
Working Paper
Did the Financial Reforms of the Early 1990s Fail? A Comparison of Bank Failures and FDIC Losses in the 1986-92 and 2007-13 Periods
Two of the most significant banking reforms to come out of the banking problems in the late 1980s and early 1990s were the increase in capital requirements from Basel 1 and the prompt corrective action (PCA) provisions of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 (FDICIA). The PCA provisions require regulators to shut down banks before book capital becomes negative. We compare failures and FDIC losses on commercial banks in the pre-FDICIA commercial bank crisis of the mid-1980s to early 1990s with that in the recent financial crisis. Using a sample of community and ...
Journal Article
Can risk-based deposit insurance premiums control moral hazard?
Journal Article
Group lending and financial intermediation: an example
Briefing
Did Banking Reforms of the Early 1990s Fail? Lessons from Comparing Two Banking Crises
New Richmond Fed research on community and midsize banks evaluates the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act (FDICIA) and Basel I by comparing failures in the 1986-92 period to those in 2007-13. Banks greatly increased commercial real estate lending between the two banking crises, but higher capital mitigated this risk. Failure rates in the recent crisis were mainly driven by the severity of the economic shocks. However, higher capital did not help contain FDIC losses, which were much larger in the recent crisis. One possible explanation is limitations in the accounting ...
Journal Article
The Financial Crisis, the Collapse of Bank Entry, and Changes in the Size Distribution of Banks
We document the effects of the recent financial crisis on the size distribution of U.S. commercial banks. There was a 14 percent drop in the number of banks from 2007 to 2013. Proportionally, the largest declines were to the smallest banks, those with less than $100 million in assets. This drop in the number of small banks is not due to bank failures. Despite the severity of the crisis, the rate at which a bank exits the industry, either due to failure or acquisition, is similar to that before the crisis. We show that there has been very little entry into banking since the crisis and that ...