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Speech
Improving the measurement of inflation expectations
Potter, Simon M. (2012)
Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.
Speech , Paper 84

Discussion Paper
How the Fed Changes the Size of Its Balance Sheet
Leonard, Deborah; Martin, Antoine; Potter, Simon M. (2017-07-10)
The size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased greatly between 2009 and 2014 owing to large-scale asset purchases. The balance sheet has stayed at a high level since then through the ongoing reinvestment of principal repayments on securities that the Fed holds. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, it is expected to do so by gradually reducing the pace of reinvestments, as outlined in the June 2017 addendum to the FOMC’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. How do asset purchases increase the size of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170710

Working Paper
Monetary Policy Implementation With an Ample Supply of Reserves
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Kim, Kyungmin; Nosal, Ed; Afonso, Gara; Martin, Antoine; Potter, Simon M. (2020-01-02)
Methods of monetary policy implementation continue to change. The level of reserve supply—scarce, abundant, or somewhere in between—has implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of an implementation regime. The money market events of September 2019 highlight the need for an analytical framework to better understand implementation regimes. We discuss major issues relevant to the choice of an implementation regime, using a parsimonious framework and drawing from the experience in the United States since the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We find that the optimal level of reserve supply ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2020-02

Speech
Implementation of open market operations in a time of transition
Potter, Simon M. (2014-10-25)
Remarks before the Japan Center for Economic Research, Tokyo, Japan.
Speech , Paper 142

Report
Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates
Potter, Simon M.; Chauvet, Marcelle; Juhn, Chinhui (2001)
We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics among unemployment rates disaggregated for seven age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find ...
Staff Reports , Paper 132

Discussion Paper
Conclusion: How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go?
Potter, Simon M.; McCarthy, Jonathan; Sahin, Aysegul (2012-04-02)
A major theme of the posts in our labor market series has been that the outflows from unemployment, either into employment or out of the labor force, have been the primary determinant of unemployment rate dynamics in long expansions. The key to the importance of outflows is that within long expansions there have not been adverse shocks that lead to a burst of job losses. To illustrate the power of this mechanism, we presented simulations in a previous post that were based on the movements in the outflow and inflow rates in the previous three expansions. These simulated paths show the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120402

Speech
Implementing monetary policy post-crisis: What have we learned? What do we need to know? remarks at a workshop organized by Columbia University SIPA and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 2016
Potter, Simon M. (2016-05-04)
Workshop organized by Columbia University School of International Affairs and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 2016.
Speech , Paper 208

Report
Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings
Topa, Giorgio; Potter, Simon M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Bryan, Michael F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2008)
This paper reports preliminary findings from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York research program aimed at improving survey measures of inflation expectations. We find that seemingly small differences in how inflation is referred to in a survey can lead respondents to consider significantly different price concepts. For near-term inflation, the "prices in general" question in the monthly Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers can elicit responses that focus on the most visible prices, such as gasoline or food. Questions on the "rate of inflation" can lead to responses on the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 359

Speech
Reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet: the benefits of moving gradually and predictably: remarks to the National Association of Securities Professionals, New York City
Potter, Simon M. (2017-11-16)
Remarks to the National Association of Securities Professionals, New York City.
Speech , Paper 262

Speech
Remarks on the role of central bank interactions with financial markets
Potter, Simon M. (2012)
Remarks at New York University's Stern School of Business, New York City.
Speech , Paper 94

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