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Journal Article
Another Way to Compare Banking Conditions in the U.S.
Working Paper
Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve off-site surveillance of community banks?
We examine the value of feedback from the jumbo-certificate-of-deposit (CD) market in the off-site surveillance of community banks. Using accounting data, we construct proxies for default premiums on jumbo CDs. Then, we produce rank orderings of community banks -- defined as institutions holding less than $500 million in assets (constant 1999 dollars) -- based on these proxies. Next, we use an econometric surveillance model to generate rank orderings based on the probability of encountering financial distress. Finally, we compare these rank orderings as tools for flagging emerging problems. ...
Working Paper
Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve bank surveillance?
We examine the value of jumbo certificate-of-deposit (CD) signals in bank surveillance. To do so, we first construct proxies for default premiums and deposit runoffs and then rank banks based on these risk proxies. Next, we rank banks based on the output of a logit model typical of the econometric models used in off-site surveillance. Finally, we compare jumbo-CD rankings and surveillance-model rankings as tools for predicting financial distress. Our comparisons include eight out-of-sample test windows during the 1990s. We find that rankings obtained from jumbo-CD data would not have improved ...
Journal Article
The future of community banks: lessons from banks that thrived during the recent financial crisis
The authors study the distinguishing features of community banks that maintained the highest supervisory ratings during the recent financial crisis (2006 to 2011). They identify balance sheet and income statement ratios that separate these thriving banks from other community banks and supplement that analysis with detailed interview evidence from a sample of thriving banks. They conclude that there is a strong future for well-run community banks and that the banks that prosper will be the ones with strong commitments to maintaining risk control standards in all economic environments. There is ...
Working Paper
Federal Reserve lending to troubled banks during the financial crisis, 2007-10
Numerous commentaries have questioned both the legality and appropriateness of Federal Reserve lending to banks during the recent financial crisis. This article addresses two questions motivated by such commentary: 1) Did the Federal Reserve violate either the letter or spirit of the law by lending to undercapitalized banks? 2) Did Federal Reserve credit constitute a large fraction of the deposit liabilities of failed banks during their last year prior to failure? The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 (FDICIA) imposed limits on the number of days that the Federal ...
Working Paper
The role of a CAMEL downgrade model in bank surveillance
This article examines the potential contribution to bank supervision of a model designed to predict which banks will have their supervisory ratings downgraded in future periods. Bank supervisors rely on various tools of off-site surveillance to track the condition of banks under their jurisdiction between on-site examinations, including econometric models. One of the models that the Federal Reserve System uses for surveillance was estimated to predict bank failures. Because bank failures have been so rare during the last decade, the coefficients on this model have been "frozen" since 1991. ...
Journal Article
Why Are More Credit Unions Buying Community Banks?
This trend is growing but remains small because of regulatory and business-model challenges.
Journal Article
How Fast Will Banks Adopt New Technology This Time?
We offer insight into this question of what might happen with respect to the introduction of new technologies by looking back at what did happen following introduction of an earlier technology: bank websites. If the past is prologue, this may foretell how technological innovations in banking will be diffused in the future.
Journal Article
How healthy is the U.S. banking system? funneling financial data into failure probabilities
The diagnosis on banks is comforting, despite a few weak spots here and there and an economy that's slowing down.
Journal Article
Most community banks will pay lower premiums under FDIC assessment rules
Find out why community banks will benefit from the new FDIC assessment base as called for under the Dodd-Frank Act.