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Journal Article
Spotlight: Texas subprime mortgages: metros vary on risky loans--and delinquencies
The current financial crisis has brought a severe decline in subprime mortgage lending. Like the nation, Texas and its metros still have exposure to existing loans. Housing prices, unemployment and overall economic activity will play a significant part in determining how many of them run into trouble.
Journal Article
Globalizing Texas: exports and high-tech jobs
Working Paper
Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Create Jobs and Stimulate Growth?
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 is the most extensive overhaul of the U.S. income tax code since the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Existing estimates of TCJA’s economic impact are based on economic projections using pre-TCJA estimates of tax effects. I exploit plausibly exogenous state-level variation in tax changes from TCJA and find that an income tax cut equaling 1 percent of GDP led to a 1.3 percentage point faster job growth and nearly 1.5 percentage points higher GDP growth. The impact on growth was the strongest in the year of the tax change, with much smaller effects in the ...
Journal Article
Who doesn't have health insurance and why
Journal Article
Underemployment poses long-term financial risk to more workers
The underemployed and the discouraged?those who have given up trying to find work? are additional indicators of labor dislocation.
Working Paper
Did Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Create Jobs and Stimulate Growth? Early Evidence Using State-Level Variation in Tax Changes
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 is the most extensive overhaul of the U.S. income tax code since the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Existing estimates of TCJA’s economic impact are based on economic projections using pre-TCJA estimates of tax effects. Following recent pioneering work of Zidar (2019), I exploit plausibly exogenous state-level variation in tax changes and find that an income tax cut equaling 1 percent of GDP led to a 1 percentage point higher nominal GDP growth and about 0.3 percentage point faster job growth in 2018.
Journal Article
Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Provided Much-Needed Fiscal Support
Recent analysis suggests that enhanced unemployment insurance benefits implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have helped buttress spending among the unemployed and supported state and local economies. Their economic impact in Texas relative to the nation has been constrained by lower levels of participation in the unemployment aid programs and more modest per-capita payments from them.
Journal Article
Wage flexibility in Texas may ease impact of tighter monetary policy
Because wages are more flexible in Texas than in other parts of the U.S., the state?s unemployment rate will be less prone to rise when interest rates increase.
Journal Article
Texas Joblessness Persists Above U.S. Rate, Weighing on Black, Hispanic Workers
Texas lost proportionately fewer jobs than the nation during the pandemic, yet the unemployment rate rose above the national rate—a gap that has persisted. Women and minorities were affected disproportionately at the outset. While the gender unemployment gap has largely dissipated, the gaps between white workers and both Black and Hispanic workers have persisted above pre-COVID-19 levels.
Journal Article
Did NAFTA spur Texas exports?