Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 29.
(refine search)
Journal Article
The economics of sovereign defaults
Working Paper
International reserves and rollover risk
Two striking facts about international capital flows in emerging economies motivate this paper: (1) Governments hold large amounts of international reserves, for which they obtain a return lower than their borrowing cost. (2) Purchases of domestic assets by nonresidents and purchases of foreign assets by residents are both procyclical and collapse during crises. We propose a dynamic model of endogenous default that can account for these facts. The government faces a trade-off between the benefits of keeping reserves as a buffer against rollover risk and the cost of having larger gross debt ...
Working Paper
International reserves and rollover risk
This paper provides a theoretical framework for quantitatively investigating the optimal accumulation of international reserves as a hedge against rollover risk. We study a dynamic model of endogenous default in which the government faces a tradeoff between the insurance benefits of reserves and the cost of keeping larger gross debt positions. A calibrated version of our model is able to rationalize large holdings of international reserves, as well as the procyclicality of reserves and gross debt positions. Model simulations are also consistent with spread dynamics and other key macroeconomic ...
Working Paper
Asset Trading and Valuation with Uncertain Exposure
This paper considers an asset market where investors have private information not only about asset payoffs, but also about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor. In equilibrium, rational investors disagree about asset payoffs: Those with higher exposure to the risk factor are (endogenously) more optimistic about claims on the risk factor. Thus, information asymmetry limits risk sharing and trading volumes. Moreover, uncertainty about exposure amplifies the effect of aggregate exposure on asset prices, and can thereby help explain the excess volatility of prices and the predictability ...
Working Paper
International Reserves and Rollover Risk
We study the optimal accumulation of international reserves in a quantitative model of sovereign default with long-term debt and a risk-free asset. Keeping higher levels of reserves provides a hedge against rollover risk, but this is costly because using reserves to pay down debt allows the government to reduce sovereign spreads. Our model, parameterized to mimic salient features of a typical emerging economy, can account for a significant fraction of the holdings of international reserves, and the larger accumulation of both debt and reserves in periods of low spreads and high income. We ...
Journal Article
The behavior of household and business investment over the business cycle
This article describes the main characteristics of the cyclical behavior of household and business investment over the cycle in the United States and reviews the most prominent studies that have tried to explain the dynamics of these two investment components. We conclude that even though there have been advances in the understanding of the behavior of these two investment components, more research is needed. One important limitation of existing studies is that they either abstract from changes in the relative price of houses or they generate house price movements that are not aligned with ...
Working Paper
Quantitative properties of sovereign default models: solution methods matter
We study the sovereign default model that has been used to account for the cyclical behavior of interest rates in emerging market economies. This model is often solved using the discrete state space technique with evenly spaced grid points. We show that this method necessitates a large number of grid points to avoid generating spurious interestrate movements. This makes the discrete state technique significantly more inefficient than using Chebyshev polynomials or cubic spline interpolation to approximate the value functions. We show that the inefficiency of the discrete state space technique ...
Journal Article
A quantitative study of the role of wealth inequality on asset prices
This article studies the equilibrium properties of asset prices in a Lucas tree model when agents display a concave coefficient of absolute risk tolerance. This preference specification introduces a role for wealth inequality even under the presence of complete markets. The article finds evidence suggesting that the role of wealth inequality on asset prices may be non-negligible. The equity premium in the unequal economy is between 24 and 47 basis points larger than the equity premium displayed in an egalitarian economy.
Working Paper
Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults
This paper extends the baseline framework used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default by assuming that governments can borrow using long-duration bonds. Previous studies have assumed that governments can borrow using bonds that mature after one quarter. Once we assume that the government issues bonds with a duration that is close to the average duration observed in emerging economies, the model is able to generate a substantially higher and more volatile interest rate. This narrows the gap between the predictions of the model and the data, which indicates that the introduction of ...
Working Paper
The value of information with heterogeneous agents and partially revealing prices
This paper studies how the arrival of information affects welfare in a general equilibrium exchange economy with incomplete and differential information. It considers a setup in which agents differ in their attitudes toward risk. This introduces gains from trade. In equilibrium, the information sets differ across agents, i.e., they hold heterogeneous beliefs. For certain structures of primitives, the latter introduces an adverse effect on welfare. In this case, the arrival of information has opposite effects: on the one hand it weakens the adverse effect on trade, and on the other hand it ...