House Hunting in a Period of Social Distancing
Famiglietti, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos (2020-04-01)
Lower housing demand due to quarantine orders, slowing price growth and mortgage originations, and a historically high housing supply are all hitting the economy at the same time.
On the Economy

Employment Losses in Contact-Intensive Industries
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2020-12-03)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had uneven effects on employment across industries. Nonessential contact-intensive industries have experienced the largest job losses.
On the Economy

The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Future Growth
Famiglietti, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos (2021-04-15)
The yield curve has tended to be a reliable and consistent indicator of future U.S. economic growth trends.
On the Economy

Immigrant Workers and U.S. Trade Activity
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2020-09-17)
States with higher shares of immigrant workers in the manufacturing sector are more likely to trade more in manufactured goods.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2022-01)
This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity in the U.S. up to the introduction of vaccines in early 2021. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-005

Ready for the Pandemic? Household Debt before the COVID-19 Shock
Famiglietti, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos (2020-05-13)
Before the pandemic, shares of delinquencies had already been growing in consumer finance loans, credit card debt, student loans and auto loans. And delinquencies can vary greatly among states.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2
Famiglietti, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos (2019-04-15)
Expectations of housing market conditions should be considered when forecasting recessions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 10

Journal Article
The Role of Credit in the Exit of Firms Across U.S. Industries During the Great Recession
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2019-05-08)
During the Great Recession, firms in industries with higher shares of delinquent firms were more likely to go out of business.
Economic Synopses , Issue 12

Reopening the U.S. Economy an Industry at a Time
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2020-05-12)
A novel index of physical contact exposure helps to identify the industries that are the most contact-intensive and might reopen later, as well as lower-contact industries that could reopen sooner.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2021-04)
This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity during 2020 in the U.S. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on economic activity by controlling for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-005