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Working Paper
The effect of monetary policy actions on exchange rates under interest-rate targeting
One puzzling feature of recent empirical studies of the effects of monetary policy changes on exchange rates is the result that the exchange rate does not adjust immediately to the policy shock. Instead, these studies find that it can take as long as two years for the exchange rate to fully reflect the policy change. In this paper, a model of the exchange-rate response to U.S. monetary policy actions which captures these results is specified. This model is also capable of generating standard overshooting results. The authors show that the response pattern of spot and expected future exchange ...
Working Paper
Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market
This paper tests the effects of central bank intervention on the ex ante volatility of $/DM and $/Yen exchange rates. In contrast to previous research which employed GARCH estimates of conditional volatility, we estimate ex ante volatility using the implied volatilities of currency options prices. We also control for the effects of other macroeconomic announcements. We find little support for the hypothesis that central bank intervention decreased expected exchange rate volatility between 1985 and 1991. Federal Reserve intervention was generally associated with a positive change in exante ...
Working Paper
Are Japanese interest rates too stable?
Working Paper
Monetary actions, intervention, and exchange rates : a re-examination of the empirical relationships using federal funds rate target data
The results of recent empirical studies on the relationships among Federal Reserve monetary-policy actions, U.S. interventions in currency markets, and exchange rates are re-examined. Changes in the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target as measure of monetary-policy actions are used. Then the relations using federal funds rate target changes only in periods in which the Federal Reserve used the federal funds rate to implement monetary policy are estimated. The results suggest that the immediate responses of exchange rates to U.S. monetary policy actions are statistically and ...
Working Paper
Does financial market development stimulate savings? Evidence from emerging market stock markets
This paper examines the empirical relation between financial market development, as measured by the stock market, and gross private savings rates in 16 emerging markets over 1982-1993. With data from all 16 countries, there is evidence of a significant positive relation between savings and stock market size and liquidity. When countries with outlying values for the stock market measures are excluded, however, all significance disappears. The results suggest that we should not assume that a growing or deepening stock market will necessarily be associated with higher savings rates.
Working Paper
Transaction costs in an emerging market: the case of Indonesia
Despite the dramatic increase in the flow of funds to emerging stock markets, relatively little is known about the cost of transacting on these markets. This paper estimates the execution costs of trading on a representative emerging market stock exchange, the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX). We find that execution costs are affected by the difficulty of the trade, the size of the firm traded, and the broker executing the trade. Surprisingly, we find that execution costs on the JSX are only modestly higher than average execution costs in several non-U.S. developed stock markets. In addition, we ...
Journal Article
Does central bank intervention stabilize foreign exchange rates?
Since the adoption of a flexible exchange rate system in 1973, central banks of most industrialized countries have continued to intervene in foreign exchange markets. One reason is that exchange rate volatility has increased. To reduce volatility, many European countries have agreed to keep exchange rates within a band around a target exchange rate, implementing this policy by intervening in foreign exchange markets when necessary. Even without an explicit exchange rate commitment, countries such as the United States and Japan have intervened in foreign exchange markets to help stabilize ...
Journal Article
Does the yield spread predict real economic activity? : a multicountry analysis
This article evaluates the ability of the yield spread to forecast real economic activity in 11 industrial countries. The first section of this article defines the yield spread and explains why the spread may be a useful predictor of real economic activity. The second section describes the data and criteria used to evaluate the predictive power of the yield spread. The third section examines whether yield spreads have reliably forecast real economic activity in the 11 countries, using several measures of real economic activity and alternative forecast horizons. The empirical results indicate ...