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Working Paper
An experimental examination of the house money effect in a multi-period setting
There is evidence that risk-taking behavior is influenced by prior monetary gains and losses. When endowed with house money, people become more risk taking. This paper is the first to report a house money effect in a dynamic, financial setting. Using an experimental method, the authors compare market outcomes across sessions that differ in the level of cash endowment (low and high). Their experimental results provide strong support for a house money effect. Traders' bids, price predictions, and market prices are influenced by the amount of money that is provided prior to trading. However, ...
Journal Article
Competitiveness and price setting in dealer markets
The behavior of securities dealers has been closely scrutinized in the 1990s. Recent investigations of the National Association of Securities Dealers and the Nasdaq market by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission suggest that market makers colluded to fix prices and widen bid-ask spreads in attempts to increase dealers' profits at investors' expense. At a minimum, market makers appear to have adopted a quoting convention that can be viewed as anticompetitive behavior. ; This article explores the Nasdaq pricing controversy in light of economic theory and ...
Working Paper
Bubbles in experimental asset markets: Irrational exuberance no more
The robustness of bubbles and crashes in markets for finitely lived assets is perplexing. This paper reports the results of experimental asset markets in which participants trade two assets. In some markets, price bubbles form. In these markets, traders will pay even higher prices for the asset with lottery characteristics, i.e., a claim on a large, unlikely payoff. However, institutional design has a significant impact on deviations in prices from fundamental values, particularly for an asset with lottery characteristics. Price run-ups and crashes are moderated when traders finance purchases ...
Working Paper
An empirical examination of the price-dividend relation with dividend management
Some recent empirical evidence suggests that stock prices are not properly modelled as the present discounted value of expected dividends. In this paper we estimate a present value model of stock price that is capable of explaining the observed long-term trends in stock prices. The model recognizes that firm managers control cash dividend payments. The model estimates indicate that stock price movements may be explained by managerial behavior.
Working Paper
Immediate disclosure or secrecy? the release of information in experimental asset markets
The Federal Reserve has made significant changes in its predisposition to release information over time. This paper reports the results of experimental asset markets designed to investigate how the public disclosure of uncertain information affects market and individual outcomes. In one set of markets, no information is released at the beginning of each trading year. In two other sets, an imperfect pre-announcement of the state of nature is disclosed. The reliability of the pre-announcement (60 percent and 90 percent) varies across treatments. Halfway through each trading year, the state of ...
Working Paper
The origins of bubbles in laboratory asset markets
In twelve sessions conducted in a typical bubble-generating experimental environment, we design a pair of assets that can detect both irrationality and speculative behavior. The specific form of irrationality we investigate is probability judgment error associated with low-probability, high-payoff outcomes. Independently, we test for speculation by comparing prices of identically paying assets in multiperiod versus single-period markets. When these tests indicate the presence of probability judgment error and speculation, bubbles are more likely to occur. This finding suggests that both ...
Working Paper
When the shoe is on the other foot: experimental evidence on evaluation disparities
Research provides evidence that the method chosen to elicit value has an important effect on a person?s valuation. We hypothesize that role has a crucial effect on decision makers? elicited values: Buyers prefer to pay less and sellers prefer to collect more. We conduct experimental sessions and replicate the disparity between willingness to pay and willingness to accept. We conduct additional sessions in which role is stripped away: Endowed decision makers provide values that are used to determine a price at which anonymous others transact. Importantly, decision makers? earnings in the ...
Working Paper
Efficiency in index options markets and trading in stock baskets
Researchers have reported mispricing in index options markets. This study further examines the efficiency of the S&P 500 index options market by testing theoretical pricing relationships implied by no-arbitrage conditions. The effect of a traded stock basket, Standard and Poor's Depository Receipts (SPDRs), on the link between index and options markets is also examined. Pricing efficiency within options markets improves, and the evidence supports the hypothesis that a stock basket enhances the connection between markets. However, when transactions costs and short sales constraints are ...