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Working Paper
The Evolution of Lifetime Hours and the Gender Wage Gap
Leukhina, Oksana; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
(2023-09)
The gender wage gap decreased (opened) from 1940 to 1975 and then increased (closed) until 2010. We use the model introduced in Ben-Porath (1967) to assess the role of gender differences in life cycle profiles of market time in explaining this dynamics. Men's profiles changed little across cohorts, but women's profiles converged to that of men implying, eventually, stronger incentives for women to accumulate human capital. We calibrate the model and find that (1) The 1940-75 decrease of the gap was because men valued human capital more than women due to their working more. The 1975-10 ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-025
Working Paper
What about Japan?
Lustig, Hanno; Cole, Harold L.; Chien, YiLi
(2023-11-06)
As a result of the BoJ's large-scale asset purchases, the consolidated Japanese government borrows mostly at the floating rate from households and invests in longer-duration risky assets to earn an extra 3% of GDP. We quantify the impact of Japan's low-rate policies on its government and households. Because of the duration mismatch on the government balance sheet, the government's fiscal space expands when real rates decline, allowing the government to keep its promises to older Japanese households. A typical younger Japanese household does not have enough duration in its portfolio to ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-028
Working Paper
Insurance and Inequality with Persistent Private Information
Leukhina, Oksana; Bloedel, Alex; Krishna, R. Vijay
(2024-08-11)
We study the implications of optimal insurance provision for long-run welfare and inequality in economies with persistent private information. A principal insures an agent whose private type follows an ergodic, finite-state Markov chain. The optimal contract always induces immiseration: the agent’s consumption and utility decrease without bound. Under positive serial correlation, it also backloads high-powered incentives: the sensitivity of the agent’s utility with respect to his reports increases without bound. These results extend—and help elucidate the limits of—the hallmark ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2018-020
Working Paper
The Determination of Public Debt under both Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Uncertainty
Wen, Yi; Chien, YiLi
(2021-12-29)
We use an analytically tractable, heterogeneous-agent incomplete-markets model to show that the Ramsey planner’s decision to finance stochastic public expenditures implies a departure from tax smoothing and an endogeneous mean-reverting force to support positive debt growth despite the government’s precautionary saving motives. Specifically, the government’s attempt to balance the competing incentives between its own precautionary saving (tax smoothing) and households’ precautionary saving (individual consumption smoothing)—even at the cost of extra tax distortion—implies an ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2019-038
Working Paper
Enduring Relationships in an Economy with Capital and Private Information
Ravikumar, B.; Popov, Latchezar; Khan, Aubhik
(2020-09)
We study efficient risk sharing in a model where agents operate linear production technologies with private information about idiosyncratic productivity. Capital is the sole factor of production, and accumulable. We establish a time-invariant, one-to-one mapping between the capital allocated to an agent and his lifetime utility entitlement. The mapping implies properties that are distinct from those in private-information endowment models. In contrast to the endowment model, the value of the risk-sharing arrangement in our model always remains above autarky value, so there is no need for ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-034
Working Paper
Did Doubling Reserve Requirements Cause the 1937-38 Recession? New Evidence on the Impact of Reserve Requirements on Bank Reserve Demand and Lending
Wheelock, David C.; Mason, Joseph R.; Calomiris, Charles W.
(2022-05-04)
In 1936-37, the Federal Reserve doubled member banks' reserve requirements. Friedman and Schwartz (1963) famously argued that the doubling increased reserve demand and forced the money supply to contract, which they argued caused the recession of 1937-38. Using a new database on individual banks, we show that higher reserve requirements did not generally increase banks' reserve demand or contract lending because reserve requirements were not binding for most banks. Aggregate effects on credit supply from reserve requirement increases were therefore economically small and statistically zero.
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-011
Working Paper
Time-Inconsistent Optimal Quantity of Debt
Wen, Yi; Chien, YiLi
(2020-10-29)
A key feature of the infinite-horizon heterogeneous-agents incomplete-markets (Inf-HAIM) framework is that the equilibrium interest rate of public debt lies below the time discount rate (regardless of capital). This happens because of a positive liquidity premium on asset returns due to imperfect risk sharing. This fundamental property of standard Inf-HAIM models, however, implies that the Ramsey planner's fiscal policy may be time-inconsistent---because the planner has a dominate incentive to issue plenty of debt such that all households are fully self-insured against idiosyncratic risk ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-037
Working Paper
The Impact of Racial Segregation on College Attainment in Spatial Equilibrium
Rubinton, Hannah; Kozlowski, Julian; Gregory, Victoria
(2022-10-12)
We incorporate race into an overlapping-generations spatial-equilibrium model with neighborhood spillovers. Race matters in two ways: (i) the Black-White wage gap and (ii) homophily—the preferences of individuals over the racial composition of their neighborhood. We find that these two forces generate a Black-White college gap of 22 percentage points, explaining about 80% of the college gap in the data for the St. Louis metro area. Counterfactual exercises show that the wage gap and homophily explain 7 and 18 percentage points of the college gap, respectively. A policy of equalizing school ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-036
Working Paper
Earnings Misperceptions and Household Distress
Sanchez, Juan M.; Song, Stefan
(2025-11-03)
Households learn whether income changes are temporary or persistent from their own paychecks. This paper develops a quantitative model of financial distress that incorporates this inference and estimates the extent to which households overweight recent outcomes—diagnostic expectations—using survey data on income beliefs. The model explains distress without assuming extreme impatience and aligns with the observed relationship between income and interest rates. Learning and diagnostic expectations account for about half of delinquencies and one-third of bankruptcies. Diagnostic expectations ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-030
Working Paper
Vocational Considerations and Trends in Social Security Disability
Nelson, Jaeger; Wiczer, David; Michaud, Amanda M.
(2016-10-16)
Along with health, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) evaluates work-limiting disability by considering vocational factors including age, education, and past work experience. As the number of SSDI applicants and awards has increased, these vocational criteria are increasingly important to acceptances and denials. A unique state-level dataset allows us to estimate how these factors relate to the SSDI award process. These estimates are used to asses how changes to the demographic and occupational composition have contributed to awards trends. In our results, the prevalence of workers ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2016-18
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D72 2 items
E0 2 items
E27 2 items
F23 2 items
F3 2 items
F40 2 items
G10 2 items
G23 2 items
G34 2 items
G5 2 items
H12 2 items
H20 2 items
H23 2 items
H27 2 items
H32 2 items
H4 2 items
H54 2 items
H55 2 items
H73 2 items
I38 2 items
J30 2 items
J40 2 items
K10 2 items
L22 2 items
M16 2 items
O3 2 items
O57 2 items
Q53 2 items
R53 2 items
Z0 2 items
A14 1 items
A20 1 items
A21 1 items
B0 1 items
B1 1 items
B2 1 items
C1 1 items
C10 1 items
C18 1 items
C21 1 items
C26 1 items
C34 1 items
C43 1 items
C51 1 items
C54 1 items
C71 1 items
C8 1 items
C81 1 items
C82 1 items
D12 1 items
D51 1 items
D62 1 items
D7 1 items
D78 1 items
D86 1 items
D9 1 items
D90 1 items
E02 1 items
E25 1 items
E49 1 items
E69 1 items
F00 1 items
F02 1 items
F17 1 items
F32 1 items
F36 1 items
F37 1 items
F50 1 items
F51 1 items
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F54 1 items
F55 1 items
F65 1 items
G30 1 items
H1 1 items
H22 1 items
H53 1 items
H57 1 items
H62 1 items
H77 1 items
H8 1 items
H81 1 items
H84 1 items
H87 1 items
I1 1 items
I21 1 items
I22 1 items
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I28 1 items
I31 1 items
J01 1 items
J38 1 items
J42 1 items
J44 1 items
J6 1 items
J68 1 items
J7 1 items
K35 1 items
L72 1 items
L86 1 items
L93 1 items
M12 1 items
M50 1 items
M52 1 items
M55 1 items
N00 1 items
N10 1 items
N2 1 items
O2 1 items
O32 1 items
O38 1 items
O5 1 items
O51 1 items
P16 1 items
P23 1 items
P24 1 items
P51 1 items
Q02 1 items
Q32 1 items
Q54 1 items
Q58 1 items
R0 1 items
R13 1 items
R2 1 items
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inflation 42 items
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international trade 29 items
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human capital 26 items
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inequality 25 items
Money 23 items
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time series analysis 22 items
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liquidity 21 items
unemployment 20 items
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job search 19 items
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discretion 18 items
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Fiscal policy 17 items
Labor market 16 items
Liquidity (Economics) 16 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 16 items
technology adoption 16 items
Asset pricing 15 items
Default 15 items
government debt 15 items
misallocation 15 items
Federal Open Market Committee 14 items
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credit spreads 14 items
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Monetary Policy 13 items
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deficit 13 items
institutional design 13 items
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time-consistency 13 items
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business cycles 12 items
productivity 12 items
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high-frequency data 11 items
mobility 11 items
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college quality 9 items
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banking panics 7 items
banks 7 items
capital asset pricing model 7 items
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contagion 7 items
employment 7 items
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backloaded incentives 5 items
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conditional encompassing 4 items
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economic geography 4 items
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extensive and intensive margins 4 items
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gravity 4 items
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inflation forecasts 4 items
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labor flows 4 items
large language models 4 items
nonlinear methods 4 items
nonlinearity 4 items
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optimal monetary policy 4 items
overlapping generations 4 items
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public finance of higher education 4 items
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selection bias 4 items
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wealth 4 items
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Education - Economic aspects 3 items
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Establishment-size wage premium 3 items
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Financial Distress 3 items
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Friedman, Milton 3 items
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Gravity model 3 items
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Heterogeneity 3 items
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Home ownership 3 items
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Macroeconomics - Econometric models 3 items
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