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Working Paper
Linear rational expectations models for dynamically interrelated variables
Hansen, Lars Peter; Sargent, Thomas J.
(1980)
Working Papers
, Paper 135
Working Paper
Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk
Presno, Ignacio; Ottonello, Pablo; Bianchi, Javier
(2019-09-12)
The excess procyclicality of fiscal policy is commonly viewed as a central malaise in emerging economies. We document that procyclicality is more pervasive in countries with higher sovereign risk and provide a model of optimal fiscal policy with nominal rigidities and endogenous sovereign default that can account for this empirical pattern. Financing a fiscal stimulus is costly for risky countries and can render countercyclical policies undesirable, even in the presence of large Keynesian stabilization gains. We also show that imposing austerity can backfire by exacerbating the exposure to ...
Working Papers
, Paper 762
Working Paper
Firm and Worker Dynamics in an Aging Labor Market
Engbom, Niklas
(2019-04-10)
I develop an idea flows theory of firm and worker dynamics in order to assess the consequences of population aging. Older people are less likely to attempt entrepreneurship and switch employers because they have found better jobs. Consequently, aging reduces entry and worker mobility through a composition effect. In equilibrium, the lower entry rate implies fewer new, better job opportunities for workers, while the better matched labor market dissuades job creation and entry. Aging accounts for a large share of substantial declines in firm and worker dynamics since the 1980s, primarily due to ...
Working Papers
, Paper 756
Working Paper
Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations
Teles, Pedro; Navarro, Gaston; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Ayres, Joao Luiz
(2019-04-18)
We explore quantitatively the possibility of multiple equilibria in a model of sovereign debt crises. The source of multiplicity is the one identified by Calvo (1988). This type of multiplicity has been at the heart of the policy debate through the recent European sovereign debt crisis. Key for multiplicity in the model is a stochastic process for output featuring long periods of either high or low growth. We calibrate the output process in the model using data for the southern European countries that were exposed to the debt crisis. We find that expectations-driven sovereign debt crises are ...
Working Papers
, Paper 757
Working Paper
Online Appendix for: The Welfare Costs of Inflation
Benati, Luca; Nicolini, Juan Pablo
(2021-09-24)
Working Papers
, Paper 784
Working Paper
Benchmarking Global Optimizers
Arnoud, Antoine; Guvenen, Fatih; Kleineberg, Tatjana
(2023-12-15)
We benchmark six global optimization algorithms by comparing their performance on challenging multidimensional test functions as well as on a method of simulated moments estimation of a panel data model of earnings dynamics. Five of the algorithms are from the popular NLopt open-source library: (i) Controlled Random Search with local mutation (CRS), (ii) Improved Stochastic Ranking Evolution Strategy (ISRES), (iii) Multi-Level Single-Linkage (MLSL), (iv) Stochastic Global Optimization (StoGo), and (v) Evolutionary Strategy with Cauchy distribution (ESCH). The sixth algorithm is TikTak, which ...
Working Papers
, Paper 801
Working Paper
The Over-the-Counter Theory of the Fed Funds Market: A Primer
Lagos, Ricardo; Afonso, Gara
(2014-04-18)
We present a dynamic over-the-counter model of the fed funds market and use it to study the determination of the fed funds rate, the volume of loans traded, and the intraday evolution of the distribution of reserve balances across banks. We also investigate the implications of changes in the market structure, as well as the effects of central bank policy instruments such as open market operations, the discount window lending rate, and the interest rate on bank reserves.
Working Papers
, Paper 711
Working Paper
Bounded Learning from Incumbent Firms
Luttmer, Erzo G. J.
(2020-08-07)
Social learning plays an important role in models of productivity dispersion and long-run growth. In economies with a continuum of producers and unbounded productivity distributions, social learning can sometimes leave long-run growth rates completely indeterminate. This paper modifies a model in which potential entrants attempt to imitate randomly selected incumbent firms by introducing an upper bound on how much entrants can learn from incumbents. When this upper bound is taken to infinity, a unique long-run growth rate emerges, even though the economy without upper bound has an unbounded ...
Working Papers
, Paper 771
Working Paper
Economies of density versus natural advantage: crop choice on the back forty
Lee, Sanghoon; Holmes, Thomas J.
(2009)
We estimate the factors determining specialization of crop choice at the level of individual fields, distinguishing between the role of natural advantage (soil characteristics) and economies of density (scale economies achieved when farmers plant neighboring fields with the same crop). Using rich geographic data from North Dakota, including new data on crop choice collected by satellite, we estimate the analog of a social interactions econometric model for the planting decisions on neighboring fields. We find that planting decisions on a field are heavily dependent on the soil characteristics ...
Working Papers
, Paper 668
Working Paper
Facts and myths about the financial crisis of 2008 (Technical notes)
Troshkin, Maxim
(2008)
Technical details and specific data sources are provided for "Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008" by V. V. Chari, Lawrence Christiano, and Patrick J. Kehoe.
Working Papers
, Paper 667
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