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Author:Yücel, Mine K. 

Journal Article
Sizing up nanoelectronics: gauging the potential for new productivity wave

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in cooperation with the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), hosted a conference on nanoelectronics and the economy in Austin on Dec. 3, 2010. Economists and scientists explored how information technology has affected U.S. productivity and output growth and prospects for the future.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q2 , Pages 16-19

Journal Article
The pricing of natural gas in U.S. markets

Stephen Brown and Mine Ycel examine how different natural gas users and the market institutions serving them affect the transmission of price changes throughout various markets for natural gas. Electrical utilities and industrial users buy much of their natural gas in a competitive spot market served by brokers and interstate pipeline companies. In contrast, most commercial and residential customers are dependent on local distribution companies, which earn a regulated rate of return and buy their gas under long-term contracts. ; Using time-series methods, Brown and Ycel find that even in the ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Apr , Pages 41-51

Journal Article
The interest rate sensitivity of Texas industry

A key factor in forecasting a region's growth is anticipating how a region will respond to changes in national policy. One important way national policy affects a region is through real interest rates. Forecasting regional growth, therefore, requires good estimates of the interest rate sensitivity of regional industries. In this study, Lori Taylor and Mine Yucel use vector autoregression analysis to examine the relationship between changes in real short-term interest rates and changes in Texas industry employment. They find that while a few industries are moderately sensitive to interest rate ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q II , Pages 27-33

Journal Article
Regional update

Southwest Economy , Issue Jul , Pages 7

Journal Article
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: a tool for understanding the economy

Southwest Economy , Issue Jan , Pages 15

Working Paper
Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity: an international perspective

Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this paper, we employ Bayesian methods with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity to identify the various sources of oil price shocks and economic fluctuation and to assess their effects on U.S. economic activity. We find that changes in oil prices are best understood as endogenous. Oil price shocks in the 1970s and early 1980s and the 2000s reflect differing mixes of shifts in oil supply and demand, and differing sources of oil price shocks have differing effects on ...
Working Papers , Paper 1003

Journal Article
Did speculation drive oil prices? market fundamentals suggest otherwise

Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look at evidence from the physical market for oil and conclude that fundamentals, and not speculation, were behind the dramatic rise and fall in oil prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the futures market.
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Journal Article
Regional update

Southwest Economy , Issue Nov , Pages 15

Journal Article
Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book

In this study, Nathan Balke and Mine Yucel ask whether the Eleventh Federal Reserve District's Beige Book description contains timely information about economic activity within the District. They examine whether the Beige Book description tracks current Texas real gross state product (GSP) growth and current Texas employment growth. They also study whether the Beige Book has information about growth not present in other regional indicators that would have been available to analysts at the time of the Beige Book's release. They find that both the Beige Book summary and the average across ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 2-10

Working Paper
Oil price shocks and the U.S. economy: where does the asymmetry originate?

Rising oil prices appear to retard aggregate U.S. economic activity by more than falling oil prices stimulate it. Past research suggests adjustment costs and/or monetary policy may be possible explanations ofthe asymmetric response. This paper uses a quasi-vector autoregressive model of U. S. economy to examine from where the asymmetry might originate. The analysis uses counterfactual impulse response experiments to detennine that monetary policy alone cannot account for the asymmetry. The robustness ofshort-lived asymmetry across the base case and counterfactuals is consistent with the ...
Working Papers , Paper 9911


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