Search Results
Discussion Paper
Inflation Expectations in Times of COVID-19
Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Topa, Giorgio; Skandalis, Daphne; Smith, Kyle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Pomerantz, Rachel
(2020-05-13)
As an important driver of the inflation process, inflation expectations must be monitored closely by policymakers to ensure they remain consistent with long-term monetary policy objectives. In particular, if inflation expectations start drifting away from the central bank’s objective, they could become permanently “un-anchored” in the long run. Because the COVID-19 pandemic is a crisis unlike any other, its impact on short- and medium-term inflation has been challenging to predict. In this post, we summarize the results of our forthcoming paper that makes use of the Survey of Consumer ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20200513
Report
An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2016-11-17)
This report presents an overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations, a new monthly online survey of a rotating panel of household heads. The survey collects timely information on consumers? expectations and decisions on a broad variety of topics, including but not limited to inflation, household finance, the labor market, and the housing market. There are three main goals of the survey: (1) measuring consumer expectations at a high frequency, (2) understanding how these expectations are formed, and (3) investigating the link between expectations and behavior. This report discusses the ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 800
Discussion Paper
Have Consumers’ Long-Run Inflation Expectations Become Un-Anchored?
Boumahdi, Fatima; Lu, Jessica; Topa, Giorgio; Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Goldman, Leo
(2021-09-24)
With the recent surge in inflation since the spring there has been an increase in consumers’ short-run (one-year ahead) and, to a lesser extent, medium-run (three-year ahead) inflation expectations (see Survey of Consumer Expectations). Although this rise in short- and medium-run inflation expectations is relevant for policymakers, it does not provide direct evidence about “un-anchoring” of long-run inflation expectations. Roughly speaking, inflation expectations are considered un-anchored when long-run inflation expectations change significantly in response to developments in inflation ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20210924a
Report
Mismatch unemployment
Topa, Giorgio; Song, Joseph; Violante, Giovanni L.; Sahin, Aysegul
(2012)
We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in U.S. unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies: JOLTS and HWOL (a new database covering the universe of online U.S. job advertisements). Mismatch across industries and occupations explains at most one-third of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate. Geographical mismatch plays no apparent role. ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 566
Report
Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2011)
We compare the inflation expectations reported by consumers in a survey with their behavior in a financially incentivized investment experiment designed such that future inflation affects payoffs. The inflation expectations survey is found to be informative in the sense that the beliefs reported by the respondents are correlated with their choices in the experiment. Furthermore, most respondents appear to act on their inflation expectations showing patterns consistent (both in direction and magnitude) with expected utility theory. Respondents whose behavior cannot be rationalized tend to be ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 509
Working Paper
Household inflation experiences in the U.S.: a comprehensive approach
Mayer, Kristin; Stennis, Carter; Topa, Giorgio; Hobijn, Bart
(2009)
We present new measures of household-specific inflation experiences based on comprehensive information from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). We match households in the Interview and the Diary Surveys from the CEX to produce both complete and detailed pictures of household expenditures. The resulting household inflation measures are based on a more accurate and detailed description of household expenditures than those previously available. We find that our household-based inflation measures track aggregate measures such as the CPI-U quite well and that the addition of Diary Survey data ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2009-19
Report
How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Smith, Kyle; Pomerantz, Rachel; Topa, Giorgio; Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Skandalis, Daphne
(2020-11-01)
This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal immediate and unprecedented increases in individual inflation uncertainty and in inflation disagreement across respondents. We find evidence of a strong polarization in inflation beliefs and we show differences across demographic groups. Finally, we document a strong link, consistent with precautionary ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 949
Working Paper
Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data
Dogra, Keshav; Heise, Sebastian; Knotek, Edward S.; Meyer, Brent; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi
(2023-06-02)
We examine businesses' price-setting practices via open-ended interviews and in a quantitative survey module with business contacts from the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York in December 2022 and January 2023. Businesses indicated that their prices were strongly influenced by demand, a desire to maintain steady profit margins, and wages and labor costs. Survey respondents expected reduced growth in costs and prices of about 5 percent on average over the next year. Backward-looking, forward-looking, and hypothetical scenarios reveal average cost-price passthrough of ...
Working Papers
, Paper 23-14
Journal Article
Urban dynamics in New York City: conference overview and summary of papers
Topa, Giorgio; Groshen, Erica L.
(2005-12)
These articles were presented at a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in April 2005, "Urban Dynamics in New York City." The goal of the conference was threefold: to examine the historical transformations of the engine-of-growth industries in New York and distill the main determinants of the city's historical dominance as well as the challenges to its continued success; to study the nature and evolution of immigration flows into New York; and to analyze recent trends in a range of socioeconomic outcomes, both for the general population and recent immigrants more ...
Economic Policy Review
, Issue Dec
, Pages 1-4
Discussion Paper
Coronavirus Outbreak Sends Consumer Expectations Plummeting
Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Topa, Giorgio; Skandalis, Daphne; Smith, Kyle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Pomerantz, Rachel
(2020-04-06)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its March 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which provides information on consumers' economic expectations and behavior. In particular, the survey covers respondents’ views on how income, spending, inflation, credit access, and housing and labor market conditions will evolve over time. The March survey, which was fielded between March 2 and 31, records a substantial deterioration in financial and economic expectations, including sharp declines in household income and spending growth expectations. As ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20200406b
FILTER BY year
FILTER BY Bank
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 56 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 2 items
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 1 items
show more (1)
show less
FILTER BY Series
Liberty Street Economics 35 items
Staff Reports 17 items
Working Papers 3 items
Current Issues in Economics and Finance 2 items
Economic Policy Review 2 items
FRB Atlanta Working Paper 1 items
Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1 items
Working Paper Series 1 items
show more (3)
show less
FILTER BY Content Type
FILTER BY Author
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert 36 items
Armantier, Olivier 27 items
Zafar, Basit 14 items
Koşar, Gizem 11 items
Bruine de Bruin, Wändi 10 items
Heise, Sebastian 8 items
Rich, Robert W. 6 items
Dogra, Keshav 5 items
Knotek, Edward S. 5 items
Meyer, Brent 5 items
Sahin, Aysegul 5 items
Schoenle, Raphael 5 items
Chakrabarti, Rajashri 4 items
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. 4 items
Pomerantz, Rachel 4 items
Skandalis, Daphne 4 items
Smith, Kyle 4 items
Somerville, Jason 4 items
Williams, John C. 4 items
Boumahdi, Fatima 3 items
Melcangi, Davide 3 items
Aidala, Felix 2 items
Avtar, Ruchi 2 items
Bush, Ryan 2 items
Chalom, Rene 2 items
Goldman, Leo 2 items
Karahan, Fatih 2 items
Lall, Devon 2 items
Lester, Benjamin 2 items
Mueller, Andreas I. 2 items
Nelson, Scott 2 items
Patterson, Christina 2 items
Pilossoph, Laura 2 items
Potter, Simon M. 2 items
Rivers, David A. 2 items
Violante, Giovanni L. 2 items
Amiti, Mary 1 items
Armona, Luis 1 items
Audoly, Richard 1 items
Bisin, Alberto 1 items
Boumahdi, Fatima-Ezzahra 1 items
Brown, Meta 1 items
Bryan, Michael F. 1 items
Crump, Richard K. 1 items
Downs, Julie S. 1 items
Eusepi, Stefano 1 items
Faberman, R. Jason 1 items
Fischhoff, Baruch 1 items
Groshen, Erica L. 1 items
Guerin, Miles 1 items
Hebden, James 1 items
Herbst, Edward 1 items
Hobijn, Bart 1 items
Huwiler, Marco 1 items
Jendoubi, Haitham 1 items
Kapon, Samuel 1 items
LeSueur, Eric 1 items
Lu, Jessica 1 items
Manski, Charles F. 1 items
Mayer, Kristin 1 items
Moore, Brendan 1 items
Moro, Andrea 1 items
Orr, James A. 1 items
Raskin, Matthew 1 items
Sbordone, Argia M. 1 items
Schuh, Rachel 1 items
Setren, Elizabeth 1 items
Sinha, Arunima 1 items
Song, Joseph 1 items
Spinnewijn, Johannes 1 items
Stennis, Carter 1 items
Tambalotti, Andrea 1 items
Tang, Jenny 1 items
Torralba, Franscisco 1 items
Winkler, Fabian 1 items
Wu, Julia 1 items
Xing, Roshie 1 items
dup Bruine de Bruin, Wandi 1 items
show more (74)
show less
FILTER BY Jel Classification
E31 11 items
D84 10 items
E52 8 items
E2 5 items
E3 5 items
D1 4 items
D4 4 items
L2 4 items
D12 3 items
D14 3 items
E58 3 items
J64 3 items
C81 2 items
C83 2 items
D1;E5 2 items
D80 2 items
E21 2 items
E24 2 items
E42 2 items
E43 2 items
E44 2 items
E5 2 items
I1 2 items
J00 2 items
J01 2 items
J23 2 items
J63 2 items
D10 1 items
D15 1 items
D1;H00 1 items
D1;J00 1 items
D53 1 items
D8 1 items
D83 1 items
E16 1 items
E32 1 items
E47 1 items
E71 1 items
G1 1 items
I3 1 items
J2 1 items
J24 1 items
J3 1 items
J30 1 items
R23 1 items
R31 1 items
show more (41)
show less
FILTER BY Keywords
expectations 13 items
inflation 12 items
inflation expectations 10 items
COVID-19 8 items
Inflation (Finance) 7 items
Consumer surveys 6 items
Prices 5 items
labor markets 5 items
survey 5 items
Business Survey 4 items
Hypothetical Questions 4 items
monetary policy 4 items
household finances 3 items
pandemic 3 items
surveys 3 items
networks 3 items
referrals 3 items
Economic forecasting 2 items
Economic surveys 2 items
Federal Reserve District, 2nd 2 items
Households - Economic aspects 2 items
Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) 2 items
anchoring 2 items
consumer spending 2 items
credit cards 2 items
income 2 items
measurement 2 items
race 2 items
recession 2 items
Asymmetric Information 2 items
Labor Force Participation 2 items
Search Theory 2 items
Survey Design 2 items
COVID 1 items
Consumer behavior 1 items
Desk surveys 1 items
Earnings growth 1 items
Economic conditions - New York (N.Y.) 1 items
Economic indicators 1 items
Effective lower bound 1 items
Euler equation 1 items
Experimental Economics 1 items
Fed policy 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 1 items
Financial literacy 1 items
Health 1 items
Household Finance 1 items
Human behavior 1 items
Information theory 1 items
Investments 1 items
Labor Economics 1 items
Labor market - New Jersey 1 items
Labor market - New York (State) 1 items
Macroeconomics 1 items
Michigan Survey 1 items
On-The-Job search 1 items
Policy rate 1 items
Price level 1 items
Price-setting 1 items
Social choice 1 items
Survey of Consumer Expectations 1 items
Survey of Market Participants (SMP) 1 items
Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) 1 items
Uncertainty 1 items
Urban economics 1 items
consumer expectations 1 items
decision making 1 items
deflation 1 items
disability 1 items
distribution 1 items
duration dependence 1 items
earnings 1 items
economic activity 1 items
elasticity of intertemporal substitution 1 items
employment 1 items
home price expectations 1 items
inequality 1 items
inflation uncertainty and disagreement 1 items
job finding 1 items
job finding expectations 1 items
job offers 1 items
job postings 1 items
job search 1 items
job-finding rates 1 items
labor demand 1 items
long-term unemployment 1 items
market expectations 1 items
match efficiency 1 items
matching function 1 items
microeconomics 1 items
misallocation 1 items
mismatch 1 items
personnel 1 items
productivity 1 items
question design 1 items
reaction functions 1 items
reopening 1 items
retirement 1 items
revenues 1 items
small business 1 items
small businesses 1 items
state reopenings 1 items
strategic surveys 1 items
subjective expectations 1 items
supply chain 1 items
survey forecasts 1 items
turnover 1 items
unemployment 1 items
vacancies 1 items
wage mobility 1 items
wages 1 items
show more (123)
show less