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Author:Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim 

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No guarantees, no trade: how banks affect export patterns

This study provides evidence that shocks to the supply of trade finance have a causal effect on U.S. exports. The identification strategy exploits variation in the importance of banks as providers of letters of credit across countries. The larger a U.S. bank?s share of the trade finance market in a country, the larger should be the effect on exports to that country if the bank changes its supply of letters of credit. We find that a shock of one standard deviation to a country?s supply of letters of credit increases export growth, on average, by 1.5 percentage points. The effect is larger for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 659

Working Paper
The Dollar and Corporate Borrowing Costs

We show that U.S. dollar movements affect syndicated loan terms for U.S. borrowers, even for those without trade exposure. We identify the effect of dollar movements using spread and loan amount adjustments during the syndication process. Using this high-frequency, within loan variation, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the dollar index increases spreads by up to 15 basis points and reduces loan amounts and underpricing by up to 2 percent and 7 basis points, respectively. These effects are concentrated in dollar appreciations. Our results suggest that global factors reflected ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1312

Working Paper
International Trade Risk and the Role of Banks

International trade exposes exporters and importers to substantial risks. To mitigate these risks, firms can buy special trade finance products from banks. This paper explores under which conditions and to what extent firms use these products. We find that letters of credit and documentary collections cover about 10 percent of U.S. exports and are preferred for larger transactions, indicating substantial fixed costs. Letters of credit are employed the most for exports to countries with intermediate contract enforcement. Compared to documentary collections, they are used for riskier ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1151

Discussion Paper
Who Owns U.S. CLO Securities

Despite the increasing importance of U.S. CLOs, information on the holders of U.S. CLO securities is very limited. This note provides a breakdown of CLO investors by location and investor type using data from the Treasury International Capital (TIC) system. We find that most U.S. CLOs are held by U.S. investors and that the holdings are concentrated in insurance companies, mutual funds, and depository institutions.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2019-07-26-1

Working Paper
No Guarantees, No Trade: How Banks Affect Export Patterns

How relevant are financial instruments to manage risk in international trade for exporting? Employing a unique dataset of U.S. banks' trade finance claims by country, this paper estimates the effect of shocks to the supply of letters of credit on U.S. exports. We show that a one-standard deviation negative shock to a country's supply of letters of credit reduces U.S. exports to that country by 1.5 percentage points. This effect is stronger for smaller and poorer destinations. It more than doubles during crisis times, suggesting a non-negligible role for finance in explaining the Great Trade ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1158

Report
International Trade, Risk and the Role of Banks

Banks play a critical role in international trade by providing trade finance products that reduce the risk of exporting. This paper employs two new data sets to shed light on the magnitude and structure of this business, which, as we show, is highly concentrated in a few large banks. The two principal trade finance instruments, letters of credit and documentary collections, covered about 10 percent of U.S. exports in 2012. They are preferred for larger transactions, which indicates the existence of substantial fixed costs in the provision and use of these instruments. Letters of credit are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 633

Discussion Paper
Who Owns U.S. CLO Securities? An Update by Tranche

Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis, leveraged loans have deteriorated and concerns about CLOs, the main buyers of loans on the secondary market, have increased. These concerns have reduced the demand for new CLOs, making it harder for firms to borrow through leveraged loans on the primary market, as banks have found it more difficult to sell loans on the secondary market.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-06-25

Working Paper
International Transfer Pricing and Tax Avoidance : Evidence from Linked Trade-Tax Statistics in the UK

This paper employs unique data on export transactions and corporate tax returns of UK multinational firms and finds that firms manipulate their transfer prices to shift profits to lower-taxed destinations. It uncovers three new findings on tax-motivated transfer mispricing in real goods. First, transfer mispricing increases substantially when taxation of foreign profits changes from a worldwide to a territorial approach in the UK, with multinationals shifting more profits into low-tax jurisdictions. Second, transfer mispricing increases with a firm's R&D intensity. Third, tax-motivated ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1214

Working Paper
Trade Credit, Markups, and Relationships

Trade credit is the most important form of short-term finance for firms. In 2019, U.S. non-financial firms had about $4.5 trillion in trade credit outstanding equaling 21 percent of U.S. GDP. This paper documents two striking facts about trade credit use. First, firms with higher markups supply more trade credit. Second, trade credit use increases in relationship length, as firms often switch from cash in advance to trade credit but rarely away from trade credit. These two facts can be rationalized in a model where firms learn about their trading partners, sellers charge markups over ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1303

Newsletter
How central bank swap lines affect the leveraged loan market

The cost of borrowing U.S. dollars through foreign exchange (FX) swap markets increased significantly at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in February 2020, indicated by larger deviations from covered interest rate parity (CIP). CIP deviations narrowed again when the Federal Reserve expanded its swap lines to support U.S. dollar liquidity globally—by enhancing and extending its swap facility with foreign central banks and introducing the new temporary Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repurchase agreement facility for foreign and international monetary authorities. ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 446 , Pages 7

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