Discussion Paper
Inflation Perceptions and Inflation Expectations
Detmeister, Alan K.; Lebow, David E.; Peneva, Ekaterina V. (2016-12-05)
In this note, we discuss new data on consumers' perceptions of recent inflation from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers (MSC). Our preliminary results show that survey responses indicate inflation perceptions differ widely across individuals (with a slightly wider distribution than for inflation expectations) but the bulk of responses are between zero and five percent.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2016-12-05-2

Working Paper
Inflation, nominal wage rigidity, and the efficiency of labor markets
Lebow, David E.; Stockton, David J.; Wascher, William L. (1995)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 95-45

Working Paper
Economic performance under price stability
Stockton, David J.; Roberts, John M.; Lebow, David E. (1992)
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 125

Working Paper
Downward nominal wage rigidity: evidence from the employment cost index
Wilson, Beth Anne; Lebow, David E.; Saks, Raven E. (1999)
We examine the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity using the microdata underlying the BLS employment cost index--an extensive, establishment-based dataset with detailed information on wage and benefit costs. We find stronger evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity than did previous studies using panel data on individuals. Firms appear able to circumvent part, but not all, of this rigidity by varying benefits: Total compensation displays modestly less rigidity than do wages alone. Given our estimated amount of rigidity, a simple model predicts that the disinflation over the 1980s would ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-31

Working Paper
Fiscal rules and monetary policy
Lebow, David E.; Cohen, Darrel (1994)
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 148

Working Paper
Measurement error in the consumer price index: where do we stand?
Lebow, David E.; Rudd, Jeremy B. (2001)
We survey the evidence bearing on measurement error in the CPI and provide our best estimate of the magnitude of CPI bias. We also identify a "weighting" bias in the CPI that has not been previously discussed in the literature. In total, we estimate that the CPI overstates the change in the cost of living by about 0.6 percentage point per year, with a confidence interval that ranges from 0.1 to 1.2 percentage points. Roughly half of this bias is accounted for by the CPI's inability to fully capture the welfare improvement from quality change and the introduction of new items. Our bias ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2001-61

Working Paper
Imperfect competition and business cycles: an empirical investigation
Lebow, David E. (1990)
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 104

Working Paper
The covariability of productivity shocks across industries
Lebow, David E. (1990)
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 102

Discussion Paper
Inflation Perceptions During the Covid Pandemic and Recovery
Lebow, David E.; Peneva, Ekaterina V. (2024-01-19)
Since 2016, the Michigan Surveys of Consumers (MSC) have included questions on inflation perceptions—what people believe inflation to have been—that are worded symmetrically with their long-standing questions on inflation expectations. The questions on inflation perceptions are currently posed four times a year—in February, May, August, and November. Using available data at the time, Axelrod, Lebow, and Peneva (2018) concluded that inflation expectations and perceptions are very similar and that if perceptions were to change, expectations were likely to change as well.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-01-19-3