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Discussion Paper
Are Stress Tests Still Informative?
Hirtle, Beverly; Kovner, Anna; Zeller, Samantha (2016-04-04)
Since the height of the financial crisis, each year the Federal Reserve has disclosed the results of its stress tests, and stress testing has become ?business as usual? in the U.S. banking industry. In this post, we assess whether market participants find supervisory stress test disclosures informative. After half a decade, do the disclosures still contain information that the market finds valuable?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160404

Discussion Paper
Are BHC and Federal Reserve Stress Test Results Converging? What Do We Learn from 2015?
Kovner, Anna; Hirtle, Beverly; McKay, Eric (2015-04-06)
In March, the Federal Reserve and thirty-one large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) announced results of the latest Dodd-Frank Act-mandated stress tests. Some commentators have argued that BHCs, in designing their stress test models, have strong incentives to mimic the Fed’s stress test results, since the Fed’s results are an integral part of the Federal Reserve’s supervisory assessment of capital adequacy for these firms. In this post, we look at the 2015 stress test projections by the eighteen largest U.S. BHCs and by the Fed and compare them to similar numbers from 2013 and 2014. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150406

In the Trenches during the 2007-09 Financial Crisis
Hirtle, Beverly (2021-08-30)
Working on the Fed’s stress test was a key focus for Beverly Hirtle, an economist and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's head of research.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Bank holding company capital ratios and shareholder payouts
Hirtle, Beverly (1998-09)
Last year's sharp drop in the capital ratios of bank holding companies could cast doubt on the companies' future capital strength, especially if credit quality eroded significantly or if profitability weakened. However, an analysis linking the drop in ratios to bank efforts to increase shareholder payouts in a period of strong profitability suggests that these concerns are premature.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 4 , Issue Sep

Briefing
To Whom It May Concern: Demographic Differences in Letters of Recommendation
Hirtle, Beverly; Kovner, Anna (2024-11)
Letters of recommendation from faculty advisors play a critical role in the job market for Ph.D. economists. At their best, they can convey important qualitative information about a candidate, including the candidate's potential to generate impactful research. But at their worst, these letters offer a subjective view of the candidate that can be susceptible to conscious or unconscious bias. There may also be similarity or affinity bias, a particularly difficult issue for the economics profession, where most faculty members are White men. In this post, we draw on our recent working paper to ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 24 , Issue 35

Report
The impact of supervision on bank performance
Hirtle, Beverly; Plosser, Matthew; Kovner, Anna (2016-03-01)
We explore the impact of supervision on the riskiness, profitability, and growth of U.S. banks. Using data on supervisors? time use, we demonstrate that the top-ranked banks by size within a supervisory district receive more attention from supervisors, even after controlling for size, complexity, risk, and other characteristics. Using a matched sample approach, we find that these top-ranked banks that receive more supervisory attention hold less risky loan portfolios and are less volatile and less sensitive to industry downturns, but do not have slower growth or profitability. Our results ...
Staff Reports , Paper 768

Discussion Paper
Bank Profits and Shareholder Payouts: The Repurchases Cycle
Hirtle, Beverly; Zebar, Sarah (2022-01-09)
During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve placed restrictions on large banks’ dividends and share repurchases. These restrictions were intended to enhance banks’ resiliency by bolstering their capital in light of the very uncertain economic environment and concerns that banks might face very large losses should bad-case scenarios come to pass. When it became clear that the outlook had improved and that the losses banks experienced were unlikely to threaten their stability, the Federal Reserve removed these restrictions. In this post, we look at what happened to large ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220109

Report
Assessing financial stability: the Capital and Loss Assessment under Stress Scenarios (CLASS) model
Hirtle, Beverly; Kovner, Anna; Bhanot, Meru; Vickery, James (2014-02-01)
The CLASS model is a top-down capital stress testing framework that uses public data, simple econometric models, and auxiliary assumptions to project the effect of macroeconomic scenarios on U.S. banking firms. Through the lens of the model, we find that the total banking system capital shortfall under stressful macroeconomic conditions began to rise four years before the financial crisis, peaking in the fourth quarter of 2008. The capital gap has since fallen sharply, and is now significantly below pre-crisis levels. In the cross section, banking firms estimated to be most sensitive to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 663

Working Paper
Demographic Differences in Letters of Recommendation for Economics Ph.D. Students
Hirtle, Beverly; Kovner, Anna (2024-10)
We analyze 6,400 letters of recommendation for more than 2,200 economics and finance Ph.D. graduates from 2018 to 2021. Letter text varies significantly by field of interest, with significantly less positive and shorter letters for Macroeconomics and Finance candidates. Letters for female and Black or Hispanic job candidates are weaker in some dimensions, while letters for Asian candidates are notably less positive overall. We introduce a new measure of letter quality capturing candidates that are recommended to "top" departments. Female, Asian, and Black or Hispanic candidates are all less ...
Working Paper , Paper 24-11

Discussion Paper
Looking Back at 10 Years of Liberty Street Economics
Hirtle, Beverly (2021-03-19)
This month the Liberty Street Economics blog is celebrating its tenth anniversary. We first welcomed readers to Liberty Street on March 21, 2011 and since then our annual page views have grown from just over 260,000 to more than 3.3 million.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210319

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