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Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences
Luci Alessi
Eric Ghysels
Luca Onorante
Richard Peach
Simon M. Potter
Abstract

This paper documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped forecasts as they were made throughout the crisis. The analysis does not focus exclusively on point forecast performance. It also examines density forecasts, as well as methodological contributions, including how financial market data could have been incorporated into the forecasting process.


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Luci Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon M. Potter, Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Reports 680, 01 Jul 2014.
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Keywords: macro forecasting; financial crisis
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