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Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995
Robert W. Rich
Joseph Tracy
Abstract

This paper examines the ex post flexibility of U.S. labor contracts during the 1970-95 period by investigating whether unanticipated changes in inflation increase the likelihood of a contract being renegotiated prior to its expiration. We find strong empirical support for this hypothesis. Specifically, our results indicate that renegotiations are triggered principally by large and infrequent price shocks of either sign. When combined with evidence that ex ante contract durations are shorter during episodes of increased inflation uncertainty, our results suggest that these contracts are flexible both ex ante and ex post to changes in the evolution of inflation.


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Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Reports 521, 2011.
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Keywords: Labor contract ; Inflation (Finance) ; Uncertainty
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