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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Economic Synopses
Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession?
David Andolfatto
Andrew Spewak
Abstract

An inverted yield curve doesn’t forecast recession; it forecasts conditions that make recession more likely.


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David Andolfatto & Andrew Spewak, "Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession?" , Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Synopses, issue 30, pages 1-2, 2018.
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DOI: 10.20955/es.2018.30
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