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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Research Working Paper
The real-time (in)significance of M2
Jeffery D. Amato
Abstract

This paper examines the relationships between output, prices, interest rates, and M2 using data sets which were available in real time from 1973:1 to 1997:4. The purpose is threefold. First, the paper delineates a potential role for M2 in policymaking. Second, it provides a more accurate basis for interpreting historical policymaking. Third, it evaluates the cause and effect of the historical redefinitions of M2. The latter two objectives make it necessary to use data which was available to policymakers at the time decisions were made. In regard to the first objective, the approach is both novel and complementary to the existing literature.


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Jeffery D. Amato, The real-time (in)significance of M2, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Research Working Paper 98-05, 1998.
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Keywords: Money supply ; Interest rates ; Monetary policy
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