Home About Latest Browse RSS Advanced Search

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
International Finance Discussion Papers
Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?
Olivier Jean Blanchard
Christopher G. Collins
Mohammad Jahan-Parvar
Thomas Pellet
Beth Anne Wilson
Abstract

This paper looks at the evolution of U.S. stock prices from the time of the Presidential elections to the end of 2017. It concludes that a bit more than half of the increase in the aggregate U.S. stock prices from the presidential election to the end of 2017 can be attributed to higher actual and expected dividends. A general improvement in economic activity and a decrease in economic policy uncertainty around the world were the main factors behind the stock market increase. The prospect and the eventual passage of the corporate tax bill nevertheless played a role. And while part of the rise in stock returns came from a decrease in the equity risk premium, this decrease was relatively limited and returned the premium to the levels of the first half of the 2000s.


Download Full text
Cite this item
Olivier Jean Blanchard & Christopher G. Collins & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Thomas Pellet & Beth Anne Wilson, Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), International Finance Discussion Papers 1235, 21 Aug 2018.
More from this series
JEL Classification:
Subject headings:
Keywords: Dividends ; Earnings ; Equity returns ; Equity premium ; Gordon formula ; Tax reform ; U.S. presidential election
DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1235
For corrections, contact FRB Librarian ()
Fed-in-Print is the central catalog of publications within the Federal Reserve System. It is managed and hosted by the Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Privacy Legal