Journal Article

Will moderating growth reduce inflation?


Abstract: A much debated question among economists is the usefulness of the Phillips curve as a tool for forecasting inflation. This Economic Letter presents some quantitative comparisons between a Phillips curve-based inflation forecast and an alternative forecast that is constructed as a weighted moving average of past observed rates of inflation.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Economic forecasting; Phillips curve;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter

Publication Date: 2006

Order Number: 37