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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
FRBSF Economic Letter
The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook
Jens H. E. Christensen
Abstract

The yield spread between long-term and short-term Treasury securities is known to be a good predictor of economic activity, particularly of looming recessions. One way to learn more is through a careful scrutiny of the historical variation of such yield spreads and how they relate to the current slope of the Treasury yield curve. The results suggest that the recent flattening of the yield curve implies only a slightly elevated risk of a recession in the near term relative to any other month.


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Jens H. E. Christensen, "The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook" , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter, number 23, 2018.
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