Journal Article

Survey-based forecasts identify likely inflation outcomes


Abstract: Professional forecasters generally better predict inflation than household surveys and often outperform nave year-ahead forecasts based on the Fed?s 2 percent target. Constants, the basis of the nave forecasts, benefit because they are not subject to month-to-month volatility.

Access Documents

File(s): File format is text/html https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/6362/item/607710
Description: Full Text

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Part of Series: Economic Letter

Publication Date: 2015-08

Volume: 10

Issue: 8

Pages: 1-4