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Working Paper
The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Household Financial Distress Matters
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mather, Ryan; Athreya, Kartik B. (2023-09-11)
When a macroeconomic shock arrives, variation in household balance-sheet health (captured by the presence of financial distress “FD”), leads to differential access to credit, and hence a distribution of consumption responses. As we document, though, over the past two recessions, households in prior FD also experienced macroeconomic shocks more intensely than others, leading to a distribution of shock severity. Quantifying the importance of each dimension of heterogeneity (FD or shock severity) for consumption requires a structural model. We find that heterogeneity in FD matters more than ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-025

Discussion Paper
How Equitable Has the COVID Labor Market Recovery Been?
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2022-06-30)
One of the two monetary policy goals of the Federal Reserve System— one-half of our dual mandate—is to aim for “maximum employment.” However, labor market outcomes are not monolithic, and different demographic and economic groups experience different labor market outcomes. In this post, we analyze heterogeneity in employment rates by race and ethnicity, focusing on the COVID-19 recession of March-April 2020 and its aftermath. We find that the demographic employment gaps temporarily increased during the onset of the pandemic but narrowed back by spring 2022 to close to where they were ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220630a

The COVID-19 Recession in Historical Perspective
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés; Belmudes, Lucas (2020-11-12)
How severe is the COVID-19 recession across the globe? An analysis compares GDP growth forecasts for 2020 with historical growth rates for 155 countries.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Household Inequality and the Consumption Response to Aggregate Real Shocks
Amromin, Gene; Schulze, Karl; De Nardi, Mariacristina (2018)
The drop in output and consumption that occurred during the Great Recession has been large and prolonged. Figure 1 displays per capita U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) between 1985 and 2016 and highlights the large drop in both consumption and output that occurred starting in 2007 and its parallel shift compared with the previous trend. In this article, we ask why consumption has dropped so much and has been recovering so slowly. We also ask to what extent household inequality before and after the Great Recession interacted with the recession ...
Economic Perspectives , Issue 1 , Pages 1-20

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells
Silos, Pedro; Fang, Lei (2020-07-13)
This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, after an unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage rowth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-09

Working Paper
Cheap Talk and the Efficacy of the ECB’s Securities Market Programme: Did Bond Purchases Matter?
De Pooter, Michiel; Pruitt, Seth; Rebecca, DeSimone; Martin, Robert F. (2015-07-06)
In 2010, in response to an ever-worsening fiscal crisis, the ECB began purchasing sovereign debt from troubled euro-area countries through its Securities Market Programme (SMP). This program was designed to improve market functioning and restore the monetary transmission mechanism within the euro area. This paper does not test those ideals. Rather, we test whether SMP purchases systematically lowered peripheral yields and spreads. We find limited evidence of purchase effects but large announcement effects. In addition, on days in which the ECB was believed to have made large purchases, yields ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1139

Working Paper
A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-01-30)
Deciding to undertake a series of tightening actions present unique challenges for Federal Reserve policymakers. These challenges are both political and economic. Using a variety of economic and financial market metrics, this article examines how the economy and financial markets evolved in response to the five tightening episodes enacted by the FOMC since 1983. The primary aim is to compare the most-recent episode, from December 2015 to December 2018, with the previous four episodes. The findings in this article indicate that the current episode bears some resemblance to previous Fed ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-003

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells
Silos, Pedro; Fang, Lei (2020-07-13)
This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, afteran unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage growth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-9

Working Paper
Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data
Galvão, Ana B.; Owyang, Michael T. (2021-10-12)
High-frequency financial and economic indicators are usually time-aggregated before computing forecasts of macroeconomic events, such as recessions. We propose a mixed-frequency alternative that delivers high-frequency probability forecasts (including their confidence bands) for low-frequency events. The new approach is compared with single-frequency alternatives using loss functions for rare-event forecasting. We find: (i) the weekly-sampled spread improves over the monthly-sampled to predict NBER recessions, (ii) the predictive content of financial variables is supplementary to economic ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-028

Journal Article
Regional Spotlight: The State of the States
Flora, Paul R. (2016-10)
The U.S. economy has been expanding for seven years ? but don?t tell that to a handful of states that have suffered recessions recently. Paul R. Flora discusses how Philadelphia Fed indexes may aid in the tricky business of identifying recession patterns among the 50 states.
Economic Insights , Volume 1 , Issue 4 , Pages 8-15

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