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Speech
The economic outlook: the ‘new normal’ is now: remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City
Remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech
The joys of spring: remarks at the 21st Annual Bronx Bankers Breakfast, Bronx, New York
Remarks at the 21st Annual Bronx Bankers Breakfast, Bronx, New York.
Speech
Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook
Remarks at Euromoney Real Return XIII: The Inflation-Linked Products Conference 2019, New York City.
Discussion Paper
What Tracks Commodity Prices?
Various news reports have asserted that the slowdown in China was a key factor driving down commodity prices in 2015. It is true that China’s growth eased last year and, owing to its manufacturing-intensive economy, that slackening could reasonably have had repercussions for commodity prices. Still, growth in Japan and Europe accelerated in 2015, with the net result that global growth was fairly steady last year, casting doubt on the China slowdown explanation. An alternative story relies on the strong correlation between the dollar and commodity prices over time. A simple regression shows ...