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Report
Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability
We review a growing literature that incorporates endogenous risk premiums and risk taking in the conduct of monetary policy. Accommodative policy can create an intertemporal trade-off between improving current financial conditions and increasing future financial vulnerabilities. In the United States, structural and cyclical macroprudential tools to reduce vulnerabilities at banks are being implemented, but they may not be sufficient because activities can migrate and there are limited tools for nonbank intermediaries and for borrowers. While monetary policy itself can influence ...
Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City
Remarks at Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.
Journal Article
Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions
Financial conditions indexes summarize a broad range of financial indicators with the goal of measuring how financial markets affect economic activity. Evidence from event studies with high-frequency data supports the view that monetary policy is a key driver of financial conditions. The effects are evident, not only around monetary policy announcements but also, indirectly, around macroeconomic data releases. The impact of inflation surprises on financial conditions has strengthened over the past year, likely due to the perceived implications for the future course of monetary policy.
Speech
Monetary Policy in Times of Financial Stress
Remarks by Charles L. Evans President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago New York Association for Business Economics Harvard Club New York, New York
Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy
Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Discussion Paper
Changing Risk-Return Profiles
Are stock returns predictable? This question is a perennially popular subject of debate. In this post, we highlight some results from our recent working paper, where we investigate the matter. Rather than focusing on a single object like the forecasted mean or median, we look at the entire distribution of stock returns and find that the realized volatility of stock returns, especially financial sector stock returns, has strong predictive content for the future distribution of stock returns. This is a robust feature of the data since all of our results are obtained with real-time analyses ...
Discussion Paper
What Do Financial Conditions Tell Us about Risks to GDP Growth?
The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has been sharp. Real U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020 (advance estimate) was -4.8 percent at an annual rate, the worst since the global financial crisis in 2008. Most forecasters predict much weaker growth in the second quarter, ranging widely from an annual rate of -15 percent to -50 percent as the economy pauses to allow for social distancing. Although growth is expected to begin its rebound in the third quarter absent a second wave of the pandemic, the speed of the recovery is highly uncertain. In this post, we estimate the risks ...
Speech
Panel remarks at the Brookings Institution
Remarks at The Fed at a crossroads: Where to go next?, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
Speech
Rising to the Challenge: Central Banking, Financial Markets, and the Pandemic
Remarks at the 16th Meeting of the Financial Research Advisory Committee for the Treasury’s Office of Financial Research (delivered via videoconference).
Discussion Paper
Is Higher Financial Stress Lurking around the Corner for China?
Despite China’s tighter financial policies and the Evergrande troubles, Chinese financial stress measures have been remarkably stable around average levels. Chinese financial conditions, though, are affected by global markets, making it likely that low foreign financial stress conditions are blurring the state of Chinese financial markets. In this post, we parse out the domestic component of a Chinese financial stress measure to evaluate the downside risk to future economic activity.