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Discussion Paper
Demographic Trends and Growth in Japan and the United States
Klitgaard, Thomas; Mui, Preston (2014-10-08)
Japan’s population is shrinking and getting older, with the population falling at a 0.2 percent rate this year and the working-age population (ages 16 to 64) falling at a much faster rate of almost 1.5 percent. In contrast, the U.S. population is rising at a 0.7 percent annual rate and the working-age population is rising at a 0.2 percent rate. So far, supporting the growing share of Japan’s population that is 65 and over has been the substantial increase in the share of working-age women entering the labor force. In contrast, U.S. labor force participation rates have been falling for ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141008

Discussion Paper
Can China Catch Up with Greece?
Clark, Hunter L.; Higgins, Matthew (2023-10-19)
China’s leader Xi Jinping recently laid out the goal of reaching the per capita income of “a mid-level developed country by 2035.” Is this goal likely to be achieved? Not in our view. Continued rapid growth faces mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China’s investment-centered growth model. Additional impediments to growth appear to be building, including a turn toward increased state management of the economy, the crystallization of legacy credit issues in real estate and other sectors, and limits on access to key foreign technologies. Even ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231019

Working Paper
The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States
Fallick, Bruce; Foote, Christopher L. (2022-10-18)
Economists have studied the potential effects of shifts in the age distribution on the unemployment rate for more than 50 years. Most of this analysis uses a "shift-share" method, which assumes that the demographic structure has no indirect effects on age-specific unemployment rates. This paper uses state-level data to revisit the influence of the age distribution on unemployment in the United States. We examine demographic effects across the entire age distribution rather than just the youth share of the population — the focus of most previous work — and extend the date range of analysis ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-27

Journal Article
21st Century demographics : Community development and financial service
Diaz, Lautaro (2001)
Remarks by Lautaro Diaz, Deputy Vice President for Community Development, National Council of La Raza, before the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas conference "New Roads and E-Roads: Market Innovations in Community Development," Dallas, August 24, 2001.
e-Perspectives , Issue 4

Report
The long-run determinants of U.S. external imbalances
Ferrero, Andrea (2007-07-01)
This paper develops a tractable two-country model with life-cycle structure to investigate analytically and quantitatively three potential determinants of the U.S. external imbalances in the last three decades: productivity growth, demographic factors, and fiscal policy. The results suggest that (1) productivity growth differentials are the main driving force at high frequencies, (2) the different evolution of demographic factors across countries accounts for a large portion of the long-run trend, and (3) fiscal policy plays, at best, a minor role. The main prediction of the analysis is that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 295

Journal Article
Hang your hat in Texas: State remains a leader in firm relocations
Orrenius, Pia M.; Pranger, Ana; Zavodny, Madeline; Parra, Oscar (2024-02-02)
Recently released data through 2019 show Texas remains a juggernaut, a leader for business relocations. And while figures covering the subsequent pandemic era and beyond are incomplete, anecdotal evidence suggests Texas remains a go-to spot.
Southwest Economy

Working Paper
Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates
Lunsford, Kurt Graden; West, Kenneth D. (2017-12-21)
We study long-run correlations between safe real interest rates in the United States and over 20 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by the familiar intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long-run correlation with labor force hours growth is positive, which is consistent with overlapping generations models. For ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1723

Journal Article
Aging, Deflation, and Secular Stagnation
Braun, R. Anton (2022-10-06)
Prior to the COVID pandemic, industrialized countries experienced a sustained episode of low inflation, low real interest rates, and low per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As the logistical and other disruptions created by the COVID pandemic fade, will industrialized economies once again face downward pressure on prices, real interest rates, and output growth? We present evidence that the aging of the population was depressing the inflation rate, as well as real interest rates and GDP growth, prior to the COVID pandemic. Aging is ongoing in industrialized countries, and it will ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 13

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Inokuma, Hiroshi; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the growth rate of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Wealth Gaps between White, Black and Hispanic Families in 2019
Kent, Ana Hernández; Ricketts, Lowell R. (2021-01-05)
Across education, family structure and generations, gaps persist between the wealth of white families and that of Black and Hispanic families.
On the Economy

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