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Supply-Chain Woes, Labor Shortages and COVID-19 Slow Resilient Texas Economy
Orrenius, Pia M.; Lee, James (2021-09-30)
Regional economic growth has slowed, though it remains robust by historical standards. While demand has improved from year-ago levels, supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages have limited output growth and pushed up wages and prices.
Dallas Fed Economics

Moderate Wage Growth Spurs Search for ‘Hidden Slack’ in Labor Market
Morris, Michael; Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2019-12-17)
In recent years, much has been made about the idea of hidden slack—unused labor capacity not captured by the unemployment rate.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Online Job Posts Contain Very Little Wage Information
Batra, Honey; Michaud, Amanda M.; Mongey, Simon (2023-12-21)
We characterize the little wage information contained in online job posts. Wage information is rare: only 14% of posts contain any information. Of these, wage ranges are more common than point wages, and are wide on average, spanning 28% of the midpoint (e.g. $32,000-$42,000/yr). Posted wages are highly selected in low income occupations: 40% higher than wages of employed workers. High wage firms are more opaque, with more and wider ranges. We find zero correlation between wage information and local labor market tightness. We provide an example of bias in econometric inference that worsens as ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 083

Reading the Labor Market in Real Time
Bharadwaj, Asha; Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2020-06-09)
A coincident index developed by one of our economists can help gauge the pace of the recovery and obtain real-time information on the state of the labor market.
On the Economy

Commuting Patterns During COVID-19 Endure; Minorities Less Likely to Work from Home
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Mertens, Karel (2020-09-01)
Some workers transitioned to working from home relatively easily. In many jobs, however, performing regular work activities from home is impossible, forcing many individuals to become inactive or look for a new job.
Dallas Fed Economics

Whose Wages Are Falling Behind the Least amid Surging Inflation?
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph; Krohn, Mason (2022-10-18)
For a majority of workers, wages didn’t increase as fast as inflation in the 12 months ended in second quarter 2022. Here, we dig deeper to see how outcomes may have differed across groups of workers.
Dallas Fed Economics

U.S. Labor Market Slack Created by COVID-19 Pandemic Has Been Absorbed
Howard, Sean; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2021-10-07)
The weaker-than-expected August labor market report should not obscure the labor market’s ongoing and significant progress while recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
The Uneven Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation
Tuzemen, Didem; Tran, Thao (2019-07)
The labor force participation rate of prime-age individuals (age 25 to 54) in the United States declined dramatically during and after the Great Recession. Although the prime-age labor force participation rate has been increasing since mid-2015, it remains below its pre-recession level. Understanding the reasons for this decline requires detailed analysis; aggregate statistics on labor force participation may mask potential differences in labor market outcomes by sex or educational attainment. Didem Tzemen and Thao Tran identify these differences, finding that prime-age men and women without ...
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 21-41

How Much Slack Is Left in the Labor Market?
Howard, Sean; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2021-07-06)
Our analysis shows that viewing the level of employment through the lens of the employment-to-population ratio does not indicate considerable slack in the labor market.
Dallas Fed Economics

Dallas Fed’s Texas Jobs Estimates Provide Early, Accurate Assessment
Abraham, Alexander T.; Phillips, Keith R. (2019-05-16)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises regional job estimates in a process called benchmarking. A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas adjustment provides researchers a more current means of assessing Texas economic conditions.
Dallas Fed Economics

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