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Briefing
A Rate Cycle Unlike Any Other
Mulloy, Conner; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Henry, Erin (2023-08)
Since the Federal Open Market Committee began raising the federal funds rate in March 2022, people have speculated on the trajectory of both monetary policy and the economy. By looking at previous rate cycles, this article compares historical monetary policy cycles with the current period. We find the current cycle to be unique in terms of both the speed at which interest rates rose and the movement of inflation during the series of rate hikes.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 26

Speech
A Time for Bold Action
Williams, John C. (2020-04-16)
Remarks at Economic Club of New York (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Discussion Paper
Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting
Moench, Emanuel; Eusepi, Stefano; Crump, Richard K. (2013-09-09)
Following the June 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting different measures of short-term interest rates increased notably. In the chart below, we plot two such measures: the two-year Treasury yield and the one-year overnight indexed swap (OIS) forward rate, one year in the future. The vertical line indicates the final day of the June FOMC meeting. To what extent did this rise in rates following the June FOMC meeting reflect a shift in the expected future path of the federal funds rate (FFR)? Market participants and policy makers often directly read the expected path from ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130909

Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City
Dudley, William (2017-09-08)
Remarks at Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.
Speech , Paper 254

Working Paper
Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements
Yang, Shu-Kuei X.; Song, Dongho; Doh, Taeyoung (2020-10-06)
We apply a natural language processing algorithm to FOMC statements to construct a new measure of monetary policy stance, including the tone and novelty of a policy statement. We exploit cross-sectional variations across alternative FOMC statements to identify the tone (for example, dovish or hawkish), and contrast the current and previous FOMC statements released after Committee meetings to identify the novelty of the announcement. We then use high-frequency bond prices to compute the surprise component of the monetary policy stance. Our text-based estimates of monetary policy surprises are ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-14

Speech
Bullard Discusses U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy during UBS Panel
Bullard, James B. (2021-11-09)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard shared his views on various aspects of the U.S. economy and monetary policy during a panel discussion at the UBS European Conference 2021.Bullard said he thinks that U.S. real GDP growth coming in softer than expected in the third quarter is “a temporary phenomenon,” with growth being pushed out to the fourth quarter and through next year. He expects real GDP growth to be higher than 4% for all of 2022.In discussing the very tight labor market in the U.S., Bullard cited the unemployment-to-vacancies ratio, the unemployment rate and a labor market ...
Speech

Conference Paper
Opening Remarks: New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review
Powell, Jerome H. (2020-08-27)
Federal Reserve Chair Powell's opening remarks, Jackson Hole Symposium, August 2020.
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Journal Article
Are longer-term inflation expectations stable?
Bundick, Brent; Hakkio, Craig S. (2015-03-09)
Bundick and Hakkio use survey data to evaluate the stability of forecasters' long-term inflation expectations.
Macro Bulletin

Speech
Implementing monetary policy with the balance sheet: keynote remarks for ECB Workshop: Money Markets, Monetary Policy Implementation, and Central Bank Balance Sheets, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Potter, Simon M. (2017-11-06)
Keynote Remarks for ECB Workshop: Money Markets, Monetary Policy Implementation, and Central Bank Balance Sheets, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Speech , Paper 259

Speech
The Federal Reserve’s Market Functioning Purchases: From Supporting to Sustaining
Logan, Lorie (2020-07-15)
Remarks at SIFMA Webinar.
Speech

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