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Journal Article
Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?
China did not succumb to the Asian crisis of 1997-99, despite two apparent sources of vulnerability: a weak financial system and increased export competition from the Asian crisis economies. This article argues that both sources of vulnerability were more apparent than real. China's experience (especially its use of capital controls) does not offer a blueprint for other countries, because other countries would not want to replicate China's inefficient, non-market-oriented financial system.
Journal Article
Update on China: a monetary policymaker's report
Each year, the President of the San Francisco Fed joins the Federal Reserve Board Governor responsible for liaison with Asia on a "fact-finding" trip to the region. These trips advance the Bank's broad objectives of serving as a repository of expertise on economic, banking, and financial issues relating to the Pacific Basin and of building ties with policymakers and economic officials there. The knowledge gained and the contacts developed are critical in understanding trends affecting the Twelfth District, in carrying out responsibilities in banking supervision, and in ensuring that ...
Journal Article
Potential output in a rapidly developing economy: the case of China and a comparison with the United States and the European Union
The authors use a growth accounting framework to examine growth of the rapidly developing Chinese economy. Their findings support the view that, although feasible in the intermediate term, China's recent pattern of extensive growth is not sustainable in the long run. The authors believe that China will be able to sustain a growth rate of 8 to 9 percent for an extended period if it moves from extensive to intensive growth. They next compare potential growth in China with historical developments in the United States and the European Union. They discuss the differences in production structure ...
Speech
The Chinese economy: progress and challenges
a speech at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China
Journal Article
On the reliability of Chinese output figures
Some commentators have questioned whether China?s economy slowed more in 2012 than official gross domestic product figures indicate. However, the 2012 reported output and industrial production figures are consistent both with alternative Chinese indicators of the country?s economic activity, such as electricity production, and trade volume measures reported by non-Chinese sources. These alternative domestic and foreign sources provide no evidence that China?s economic growth was slower than official data indicate.
Working Paper
Can rising housing prices explain China’s high household saving rate?
China?s average household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast rising housing prices and other costs of living in China. This article uses simple economic logic to show that rising housing prices and living costs per se cannot explain China?s high household saving rate. Although borrowing constraints and demographic changes can help translate housing prices to the aggregate saving rate, quantitative simulations using Chinese data on household income, housing prices, and demographics indicate that rising mortgage costs ...
Journal Article
Can rising housing prices explain China’s high household saving rate?
China?s average household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast-rising housing prices and other living costs in China. This article uses simple economic logic to show that rising housing prices and living costs per se cannot explain China?s high household saving rate. Although borrowing constraints and demographic changes can help translate housing prices to the aggregate saving rate, quantitative simulations using Chinese data on household income, housing prices, and demographics indicate that rising mortgage costs contribute ...
Journal Article
The great Chinese housing boom
Significant store-of-value demand for housing suggests a bubble that could burst, especially when both the household income growth rate and the savings rate start to decline and capital controls in China start to relax.
Journal Article
Inflation in China
Journal Article
The economic rise of China: threat or opportunity?
China's economy is opening up to the outside world. This worries those who fear the huge pool of low-cost labor will drain jobs from U.S. shores, and less expensive goods will spark trade problems. The author points out that China's untapped market presents huge opportunities for U.S. businesses that would surely outweigh any loss of jobs, and also that the sort of jobs that would move to China left the U.S. a long time ago. And with respect to fair trading practices, China has made much progress.