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Newsletter
The U.S. deficit outlook March 2010
For years, economists have debated the wisdom of increasing government spending during recessions. On the one hand, increased spending adds to budget deficits, but on the other, increased spending can stimulate the economy during a downturn, thus speeding recovery. Deficits topped $1.4 trillion in the latest recession?which raises two questions: "How big is 'too big' in terms of spending?" and "What are the long-term consequences?" The March 2010 Newsletter offers some insights into this timely topic.
Report
On financing retirement with an aging population
A problem facing the United States and many other countries is how to finance retirement consumption as the number of their workers per retiree falls. Policy analysts are increasingly advocating a move to a savings-for-retirement system. An apparent problem with this move is the shortage of good savings opportunities given the limited ability of government to honor its debt. We find that there is no problem because there is much more productive capital than commonly assumed in macroeconomic modeling. We also find that eliminating capital income taxes will greatly increase savings ...
Journal Article
The political economy of balanced budget amendments
A balanced budget amendment is a constitutional rule requiring that the government collect enough revenue to finance its expenditures every year. The motivation for introducing such a rule is the desire to restrict deficit spending and limit increases in government debt. However, policymakers strongly disagree about the rule?s coverage and provisions. In particular, they disagree on how to define the terms revenue and expenditures and under which conditions exceptions to the rule should be allowed. In this article, Marina Azzimonti provides an overview of the arguments raised by proponents ...
Speech
A need for innovative fiscal policy (with a nod to John Stemmons, Ronald Reagan and Paddy McCoy)
Remarks before the Stemmons Corridor Business Association, Dallas, Texas, February 8, 2011 ; "I would be very wary of expanding our balance sheet further; indeed, given current economic and financial conditions, it is hard for me to envision a scenario where I would not use my voting position this year to formally dissent should the FOMC recommend another tranche of monetary accommodation."
Working Paper
The rise in U.S. household indebtedness: causes and consequences
The ratio of total household debt to aggregate personal income in the United States has risen from an average of 0.6 in the 1980s to an average of 1.0 so far this decade. In this paper we explore the causes and consequences of this dramatic increase. Demographic shifts, house price increases, and financial innovation all appear to have contributed to the rise. Households have become more exposed to shocks to asset prices through the greater leverage in their balance sheets, and more exposed to unexpected changes in income and interest rates because of higher debt payments relative to income. ...