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Working Paper
DO NON-COMPETE COVENANTS INFLUENCE STATE STARTUP ACTIVITY? EVIDENCE FROM THE MICHIGAN EXPERIMENT
Carlino, Gerald A. (2021-08-05)
This paper examines how the enforceability of employee non compete agreements affects the entry of new establishments and jobs created by these new firms. We use a panel of startup activity for the U.S. states for the period 1977 to 2013. We exploit Michigan’s inadvertent policy reversal in 1985 that transformed the state from a non enforcing to an enforcing state as a quasinatural experiment to estimate the causal effect of enforcement on startup activity. In a difference-in-difference framework, we find little support for the widely held view that enforcement of non-compete agreements ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-26

Report
Knowledge in cities
Ross, Adrienne; Stolarick, Kevin; Abel, Jaison R.; Gabe, Todd M. (2010-09-01)
This study identifies clusters of U.S. and Canadian metropolitan areas with similar knowledge traits. These groups?ranging from Making Regions, characterized by knowledge about manufacturing, to Thinking Regions, noted for knowledge about the arts, humanities, information technology, and commerce?can be used by analysts and policymakers for the purposes of regional benchmarking or comparing the types of programs and infrastructure available to support closely related economic activities. In addition these knowledge-based clusters help explain the types of regions that have levels of economic ...
Staff Reports , Paper 470

Working Paper
Metro Business Cycles
Arias, Maria A.; Gascon, Charles S.; Rapach, David E. (2014-11-11)
We construct monthly economic activity indices for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) beginning in 1990. Each index is derived from a dynamic factor model based on twelve underlying variables capturing various aspects of metro area economic activity. To accommodate mixed-frequency data and differences in data-publication lags, we estimate the dynamic factor model using a maximum- likelihood approach that allows for arbitrary patterns of missing data. Our indices highlight important similarities and differences in business cycles across MSAs. While a number of MSAs ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-46

Working Paper
Skilled Tradable Services: The Transformation of U.S. High-Skill Labor Markets
Walsh, Conor; Eckert, Fabian; Ganapati, Sharat (2019-09-13)
We study a group of service industries that are skill-intensive, widely traded, and have recently seen explosive wage growth. Between 1980 and 2015, these ?Skilled Tradable Services? accounted for a sharply increasing share of employment among the highest earning Americans. Unlike any other sector, their wage growth was strongly biased toward the densest local labor markets and the highest paying firms. These services alone explain 30% of the increase in inequality between the 50th and 90th percentiles of the wage distribution. We offer an explanation for these patterns that highlights the ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 25

Working Paper
Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
Koenig, Evan F.; Koch, Christoffer; Dolmas, Jim; Murphy, Anthony; Mertens, Karel; Yi, Kei-Mu; Atkinson, Tyler (2020-05-21)
We develop a Mobility and Engagement Index (MEI) based on a range of mobility metrics from Safegraph geolocation data, and validate the index with mobility data from Google and Unacast. We construct MEIs at the county, MSA, state and nationwide level, and link these measures to indicators of economic activity. According to our measures, the bulk of sheltering-in-place and social disengagement occurred during the week of March 15 and simultaneously across the U.S. At the national peak of the decline in mobility in early April, localities that engaged in a 10% larger decrease in mobility than ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014

Working Paper
Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States
Phan, Toan; Colacito, Riccardo; Hoffman, Bridget (2018-04-11)
We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross-section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1 degree F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one-third over the next century.
Working Paper , Paper 18-9

Working Paper
Is the grass really greener? Migrants' improvements in local labor market conditions and financial health
Whitaker, Stephan (2022-02-22)
This paper documents several facts about internal migrants in the US that underlie substantial areas of economic research and policy making, but are rarely directly published. Using a large-sample, 23-year panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, I estimate the distribution of changes in local labor market conditions experienced by people who move to a different labor market. Net migration favors local labor markets with lower unemployment and faster job growth, but gross flows toward weaker labor markets are almost as large as the flows toward stronger labor ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-04

Working Paper
The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market
Menzio, Guido; Wiczer, David; Gregory, Victoria (2021-04-01)
Based on patterns of employment transitions, we identify three different types of workers in the US labor market: α’s β’s and γ’s. Workers of type α make up over half of all workers, are most likely to remain on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, typically find a new job within 1 quarter. Workers of type γ comprise less than one-fifth of workers, have a low probability of staying on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, face a high probability of remaining jobless for more than 1 year. Workers of type β are in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-003

Working Paper
Do bank loans and local amenities explain Chinese urban house prices?
Huang, Daisy J.; Leung, Charles Ka Yui; Qu, Baozhi (2015-03-01)
Based on Chinese city-level data from 1999 to 2012 and controlling for geological, environmental, and social diversity, this study suggests that credit plays a significant role in driving up house prices after the Great Recession, whereas property prices only influence bank lending before 2008. Local amenities such as higher education, green infrastructure, healthcare, and climate also positively affect house prices. Moreover, the impacts of bank loans on housing prices tend to be related to the level of amenities, suggesting an integrated approach (i.e. combining macroeconomic and urban ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 230

Working Paper
A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law
Owyang, Michael T.; Sinclair, Tara M.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben; Guisinger, Amy Y. (2015-10-21)
Okun?s law is an empirical relationship that measures the correlation between the deviation of the unemployment rate from its natural rate and the deviation of output growth from its potential. In this paper, we estimate Okun?s coefficients for each U.S. state and examine the potential factors that explain the heterogeneity of the estimated Okun relationships. We find that indicators of more flexible labor markets (higher levels of education achievement in the population, lower rate of unionization, and a higher share of nonmanufacturing employment) are important determinants of the ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1523

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