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Working Paper
Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity
Liao, Gordon Y.
(2019-08)
This paper examines the connection between deviations in covered interest rate parity and differences in the credit spread of bonds of similar risk but different currency denomination. These two pricing anomalies are highly aligned in both the time series and the cross-section of currencies. The composite of these two pricing deviations ? the corporate basis ? represents the currency-hedged borrowing cost difference between currency regions and explains up to a third of the variation in the aggregate corporate debt issuance flow. I show that arbitrage aimed at exploiting one type of security ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1255
Report
Government Guarantees and the Valuation of American Banks
Weill, Pierre-Olivier; D'Avernas, Adrien; Eisfeldt, Andrea L.; Atkeson, Andrew
(2018-06-19)
Banks' ratio of the market value to book value of their equity was close to 1 until the 1990s, then more than doubled during the 1996-2007 period, and fell again to values close to 1 after the 2008 financial crisis. Sarin and Summers (2016) and Chousakos and Gorton (2017) argue that the drop in banks' market-to-book ratio since the crisis is due to a loss in bank franchise value or profitability. In this paper we argue that banks' market-to-book ratio is the sum of two components: franchise value and the value of government guarantees. We empirically decompose the ratio between these two ...
Staff Report
, Paper 567
Report
Banking globalization, transmission, and monetary policy autonomy
Goldberg, Linda S.
(2013-09-01)
International financial linkages, particularly through global bank flows, generate important questions about the consequences for economic and financial stability, including the ability of countries to conduct autonomous monetary policy. I address the monetary autonomy issue in the context of the international policy trilemma: Countries seek three typically desirable but jointly unattainable objectives?stable exchange rates, free international capital mobility, and monetary policy autonomy oriented toward, and effective at, achieving domestic goals. I argue that global banking entails some ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 640
Working Paper
The Shift from Active to Passive Investing : Potential Risks to Financial Stability?
Osambela, Emilio; Kruttli, Mathias S.; Anadu, Kenechukwu E.; McCabe, Patrick E.
(2020-06-29)
The past couple of decades have seen a significant shift in assets from active to passive investment strategies. We examine the potential effects of this shift for financial stability through four different channels: (1) effects on investment funds’ liquidity transformation and redemption risks; (2) passive strategies that amplify market volatility; (3) increases in asset-management industry concentration; and (4) the effects on valuations, volatility, and comovement of assets that are included in indexes. Overall, the shift from active to passive investment strategies appears to be ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2018-060r1
Working Paper
An Estimated Structural Model of Entrepreneurial Behavior
Pratap, Sangeeta; Jones, John Bailey
(2017-05-08)
Using a rich panel of owner-operated New York dairy farms, we provide new evidence on entrepreneurial behavior. We formulate a dynamic model of farms facing uninsured risks and financial constraints. Farmers derive nonpecuniary benefits from operating their businesses. We estimate the model via simulated minimum distance, matching both production and financial data. We find that financial factors and nonpecuniary benefits are of first-order importance. Collateral constraints and liquidity restrictions inhibit borrowing and the accumulation of capital. The nonpecuniary benefits to farming are ...
Working Paper
, Paper 17-7
Journal Article
So Far, So Good: Government Insurance of Financial Sector Tail Risk
Wall, Larry D.
(2021-11-08)
The US government has intervened to provide extraordinary support 16 times from 1970 to 2020 with the goal of preventing or mitigating (or both) the cost of financial instability to the financial sector and the real economy. This article discusses the motivation for such support, reviewing the instances where support was provided, along with one case where it was expected but not provided. The article then discusses the moral hazard and fiscal risks posed by the government's insurance of the tail risk along with ways to reduce the government's risk exposure.
Policy Hub
, Volume 2021
, Issue 13
Working Paper
Mixed Signals: Investment Distortions with Adverse Selection
Darst, Matt; Refayet, Ehraz
(2019-06-21)
We study how adverse selection distorts equilibrium investment allocations in a Walrasian credit market with two-sided heterogeneity. Representative investor and partial equilibrium economies are special cases where investment allocations are distorted above perfect information allocations. By contrast, the general setting features a pecuniary externality that leads to trade and investment allocations below perfect information levels. The degree of heterogeneity between informed agents' type governs the direction of the distortion. Moreover, contracts that complete markets dampen the impact ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2019-044
Working Paper
Endogenous Debt Maturity and Rollover Risk
Brancati, Emanuele; Macchiavelli, Marco
(2016-09-09)
We challenge the common view that short-term debt, by having to be rolled over continuously, is a risk factor that exposes banks to higher default risk. First, we show that the average effect of expiring obligations on default risk is insignificant; it is only when a bank has limited access to new funds that maturing debt has a detrimental impact on default risk. Next, we show that both limited access to new funds and shorter maturities are causally determined by deteriorating market expectations about the bank's future profitability. In other words, short-term debt is not a cause of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2016-074
Working Paper
High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects
Bräuning, Falk; Ivashina, Victoria; Ozdagli, Ali
(2023-08-22)
High-yield debt, including leveraged loans, features incurrence financial covenants or "cov-lite" provisions. These covenants differ from traditional loans' maintenance covenants, as they preserve equity control rights but impose specific restrictions on the borrower after crossing the covenant threshold. Contrary to the prevailing belief that incurrence covenants offer limited protection for creditors, our research reveals a significant and sudden decline in investment upon triggering these covenants. This evidence highlights a novel propagation mechanism for economic shocks, wherein ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2311
Working Paper
Debt Dynamics with Fixed Issuance Costs
Benzoni, Luca; Garlappi, Lorenzo; Goldstein, Robert S.; Ying, Chao
(2022-12-07)
We investigate equilibrium debt dynamics for a firm that cannot commit to a future debt policy and is subject to a fixed restructuring cost. We formally characterize equilibria when the firm is not required to repurchase outstanding debt prior to issuing additional debt. For realistic values of issuance costs and debt maturity, the no-commitment policy generates tax benefits that are similar to those obtained by a benchmark policy with commitment. For positive but arbitrarily small issuance costs, there are maturities for which shareholders extract essentially the entire claim to cash-flows.
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP 2023-01
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cybersecurity 1 items
debt dynamics 1 items
debt heterogeneity 1 items
debt-equity agency conflicts 1 items
delayed expected loss recognition 1 items
derivatives hedging 1 items
digital currencies 1 items
dynamic incentives 1 items
economic consensus 1 items
economic finality 1 items
endogenous borrowing constraints 1 items
equity 1 items
equity issuances 1 items
ethereum 1 items
exchange controls 1 items
exchange-traded funds 1 items
export dynamics 1 items
financial architecture 1 items
financial conditions 1 items
financial covenants 1 items
financial deregulation 1 items
financial development 1 items
financial hedging 1 items
financial market utility 1 items
financial markets 1 items
financial restructuring 1 items
fintech 1 items
fire sales 1 items
fire-sale externalities 1 items
firm distress 1 items
firm financial constraints 1 items
firm financing 1 items
firm growth 1 items
firm life-cycle 1 items
firm‐financial constraints 1 items
fiscal shocks 1 items
forbearance 1 items
foreign exchange risk 1 items
foreign subsidiaries 1 items
generalized Euler equation 1 items
global games 1 items
government bailouts 1 items
government policy and regulation 1 items
government procurement 1 items
growth options 1 items
growth-at-risk 1 items
history of money 1 items
insurance 1 items
interest coverage 1 items
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