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Conference Paper
Regionalism and the world trading system
Conference Paper
Macroeconomic policy and long-run growth
Journal Article
The 'new economy' : background, historical perspective, questions, and speculations
In a presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City?s 2001 symposium, ?Economic Policy for the Information Economy,? Professor J. Bradford DeLong of the University of California-Berkeley, and Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers suggested that any attempt to analyze the meaning and importance of the "new economy" must grapple with four questions:> First, in the long run, how important will ongoing technological revolutions in data processing and data communications turn out to be? Second, what does the crash of the Nasdaq tell us about the future of the new economy? Third, how ...
Journal Article
Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy
This article is based on the author?s Homer Jones Memorial Lecture delivered at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 6, 2016.
Conference Paper
Debt problems and macroeconomic policies
Conference Paper
Asia-phoria meet regression to the mean
There are two common failures in economic forecasting. One is excessive extrapolation of the (recent) past into the (distant) future, particularly susceptibility to ?irrational exuberance? (Schiller). The second is excessive subjective certainty that relies on confidence in continuity and hence consistently under predicts discontinuities?even relative to their known past probabilities. While the more bullish attitudes towards growth in China and India have been softening, the official forecasts in the IMF World Economic Outlook and the general discussions about the future of the global ...