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Working Paper
Evaluating FOMC forecasts
Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting their economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts are important because they indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. We evaluate the accuracy of the FOMC forecasts relative to private sector forecasts, the forecasts of the Research Staff at the Board of Governors, and a nave alternative forecast. The Fed reports both the range (high and low) of the individual policymaker's forecasts and a truncated central tendency. We find no reason to consider the truncated ...
Journal Article
Inside the briefcase: the art of predicting the Federal Reserve
We all know the size of the Fed chairman's briefcase as a policy indicator is a joke. But would knowing what's inside the briefcase be of real help?
Journal Article
Mixed signals?
Journal Article
Predicting inflation: food for thought
Because food prices are no longer volatile, it makes little sense to exclude them anymore from calculations to determine core inflation.
Journal Article
Economic news and monetary policy
Journal Article
Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Knowing the Fed?s objectives, their forecasts, and recent deviations of the economy from the forecasts should be sufficient to understand how the Fed is making monetary policy. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the FOMC views. For example, they match the policymakers? views as closely as do the Board staff ...
Working Paper
Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?
FOMC projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the FOMC views. For example, they match the policymakers' views as closely as do the Board staff forecasts presented at FOMC meetings. Using alternative forms of the Taylor Rule, we show that the Blue Chip consensus and the Fed Policymakers' forecasts have almost identical implications for the monetary ...