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Journal Article
A single market for Europe?
Working Paper
Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan
Japanese official intervention in the foreign exchange market is of by far the largest magnitude in the world, despite little or no evidence that it is effective in moving exchange rates. Up until recently, however, official data on intervention has not been available for Japan. This paper investigates the effectiveness of intervention using recently published official daily data and an event study methodology. The event study better fits the stochastic properties of intervention and exchange rate data, i.e. intense and sporadic bursts of intervention activity juxtaposed against a yen/dollar ...
Working Paper
A cure worse than the disease? currency crises and the output costs of IMF-supported stabilization programs
This paper investigates the output effects of IMF-supported stabilization programs, especially those introduced at the time of a severe balance of payments/currency crisis. Using a panel data set over the 19751997 period and covering 67 developing and emerging market economies (with 461 IMF stabilization programs and 160 currency crises), we find that currency criseseven after controlling for macroeconomic developments and political and regional factorssignificantly reduce output growth for one to two years. Output growth is also lower (0.7 percentage point annually) during IMF stabilization ...
Journal Article
Deficits and financial change in the Pacific Basin
Journal Article
U.S. intervention policy
Working Paper
Are all banking crises alike? The Japanese experience in international comparison
This paper examines episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of developed and developing countries, highlighting the experience of Japan. By a host of criteria, Japan appeared to be in a stronger position than most countries at the onset of banking problems - low inflation, appreciating currency, balanced government budget, and large external surpluses. However, Japan followed a clear international boom-and-bust pattern in terms of real output growth, credit growth and stock price movements. We estimate a multivariate probit model that links the likelihood of banking problems ...