Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 109.
(refine search)
Journal Article
Trends in the Noninterest Income of Banks
A large fraction of banks? revenue comes from noninterest income, which includes items such as overdraft fees and ATM charges. We investigate whether this source of income has increased since the financial crisis, given that banks? interest income may have been impacted by the low interest rate environment. We find that total noninterest income has actually decreased. However, service charges, one of the subcomponents of noninterest income, have increased. The increase in service charges is masked in the data on total noninterest income because other types of noninterest income, specifically ...
Journal Article
Sharing with a risk-neutral agent
In the standard solution to the principal?agent problem, a risk-neutral agent bears all the risk. The author shows that, in fact, multiple solutions exist, and often the risk-neutral agent is not the sole bearer of risk. As risk aversion approaches zero, the unique risk-averse solution converges to the risk-neutral solution, wherein the agent bears the least amount of risk. Even a small degree of risk aversion can result in agents bearing significantly less risk than the standard solution suggests.
Working Paper
Sticky prices, money, and business fluctuations
Can nominal contracts create monetary nonneutrality if they arise endogenously in general equilibrium? Yes, if (1) agents have complete information about the money stock and (2) shocks to the system are purely redistributive and private information, precluding conventional insurance markets. Without contracts, money is neutral toward aggregate quantities. However, risk-sharing between suppliers and demanders creates an incentive for both parties to use nominal contracts. in particular, if an increase in the money growth rate signals a rise in the dispersion of shocks to demanders' wealth, ...
Journal Article
Vagueness, credibility, and government policy
A discussion of the reasons why it may be in a government agency's--and society's--best interest to be vague about policy objectives. Using the concept of "cheap talk," the author explains that when an agency faces a trade-off between precise and credible announcements, its best move may be to provide truthful but limited information.
Working Paper
Macroprudential Policy: Results from a Tabletop Exercise
This paper presents a tabletop exercise designed to analyze macroprudential policy. Several senior Federal Reserve officials were presented with a hypothetical economy as of 2020:Q2 in which commercial real estate and nonfinancial debt valuations were very high. After analyzing the economy and discussing the use of monetary and macroprudential policy tools, participants were then presented with a hypothetical negative shock to commercial real estate valuations that occurred in the second half of 2020. Participants then discussed the use of the tools during an incipient downturn. Some of the ...
Journal Article
Does the yield curve signal recession?
Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities?a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of output growth as it used to be.
Discussion Paper
Who holds the toxic waste? An investigation of CMO holdings
Toxic waste refers to the riskiest derivative structures arising from collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). We use simulations to predict how this risk would manifest itself in various interest rate environments. We also look for evidence on the total dollar value of these securities, who holds them, and how much they hold. Very limited public information is available, but commercial banks are required to report on their holdings, and we investigate the extent to which the risk is concentrated in that sector.
Journal Article
Oil prices: backward to the future?
A useful first guess about the future spot price of a commodity is usually found in its current futures price. But it doesn?t work that way when the commodity in question is oil. This Commentary explains why the characteristics of oil, particularly the value it can offer its owner by remaining in the ground, cloud the information that oil futures prices give about future oil prices.
Journal Article
Combining bank supervision and monetary policy
In the United States, the Federal Reserve has responsibility for both monetary policy and bank supervision. Other countries separate these functions to varying degrees. What lies behind this global diversity? Should a central bank be charged with conducting monetary policy and regulating banks, or does it make more sense ? both economic and political ? to keep these activities separate? The answer is not a simple yes or no. Rather, it appears that the right choice depends on a country?s prevailing conditions, including its financial system, its political environment, and the preferences of ...