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Journal Article
Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators
Working Paper
Too-Big-to-Fail before the Fed
?Too-big-to-fail? is consistent with policies followed by private bank clearing houses during financial crises in the U.S. National Banking Era prior to the existence of the Federal Reserve System. Private bank clearing houses provided emergency lending to member banks during financial crises. This behavior strongly suggests that ?too-big-to-fail? is not the problem causing modern crises. Rather, it is a reasonable response to the threat posed to large banks by the vulnerability of short-term debt to runs.
Working Paper
Class struggle inside the firm: a study of German codetermination
Under the German system of "codetermination," employees are legally allocated some control rights over corporate assets, in the form of board seats. We empirically investigate the implications of equal board representation compared with one-third employee representation and find a 26% stock market discount on firms with equal representation. Employees redistribute the firm's surplus towards themselves but may also prefer a different objective function for the firm, maximizing employee utility rather than shareholder value. We investigate the shareholder response to codetermination via ...
Working Paper
Adverse Selection Dynamics in Privately-Produced Safe Debt Markets
Privately-produced safe debt is designed so that there is no adverse selection in trade. This is because no agent finds it profitable to produce private information about the debt’s backing and all agents know this (i.e., it is information-insensitive). But in some macro states, it becomes profitable for some agents to produce private information, and then the debt faces adverse selection when traded (i.e., it becomes information-sensitive). We empirically study these adverse selection dynamics in a very important asset class, collateralized loan obligations, a large symbiotic appendage of ...
Conference Paper
The paradox of loan sales
Conference Paper
The panic of 2007
Journal Article
Private clearinghouses and the origins of central banking
Journal Article
Haircuts
?When confidence is lost, liquidity dries up.? The authors investigate the meaning of ?confidence? and ?liquidity? in the context of the recent financial crisis, which they maintain is a manifestation of an age-old problem with private money creation: banking panics. The authors explain this problem and provide some evidence with respect to the recent crisis.