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Journal Article
Explaining long-term unemployment: a new piece to an old puzzle
Journal Article
Cleaning the air with the invisible hand
Working Paper
Regional income dynamics
Working Paper
The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States
This paper uses time-series techniques to examine whether monetary policy has similar effects across U.S. states during the 1958-92 period. Impulse response functions from estimated structural vector autoregression models reveal differences in state policy responses, which in some cases are substantial. The paper also provides evidence on the reasons for the measured cross-state differential policy responses. The size of a state's response is significantly related to its industry mix, evidence of an interest rate channel for monetary policy. The state-level data offer no support for recently ...
Working Paper
Sectoral shocks and metropolitan employment growth
Horvath and Verbrugge (1996) argue that when investigating the sources of aggregate fluctuations, it is important to use the highest frequency data available. Using monthly data for the U.S. economy they show that industry-specific shocks are more important in explaining fluctuations in industrial production than are common aggregate shocks. With the exception of Coulson (1999) studies that examine the issue at the subnational level have used low frequency, spatially aggregated data. The authors examine the relative importance of national disturbances versus local industry shocks for ...
Working Paper
The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility
This study documents a general decline in the volatility of employment growth during the period 1960 to 2002 and examines its possible sources. A unique aspect of the analysis is the use of state-level panel data. Estimates from a pooled cross-section/time-series model indicate that aggregate and state-level factors each explain an important share of the total variation in state-level volatility. Specifically, state-level factors have contributed as much as 29 percent, while aggregate factors are found to account for up to 45 percent of the variation. With regard to state-level factors, the ...
Working Paper
How strong is co-movement in employment over the business cycle? Evidence from state/industry data
This study measures the extent of co-movement in employment across states and industries at business-cycle frequencies. The strength of co-movement is quantified using the bi-variate and multi-variate measures of cohesion developed in Crous, Forni, and Reichlin (2001). The data indicate that cohesion is generally positive for the state/industry pairs, although the distribution masses around a relatively low value. The results suggest that cohesion has risen over time and that cohesion increases with spatial aggregation. Evidence is presented revealing that the measured degree of co-movement ...
Journal Article
Does lower unemployment reduce poverty?
In "Does Lower Unemployment Reduce Poverty?" Bob DeFina considers the link between unemployment and poverty. How strong the link is depends critically on how we measure poverty. During the past two decades, researchers have identified numerous shortcomings in the government's official procedures for determining the extent of poverty. DeFina presents empirical evidence that improved measures of poverty are less strongly related to changes in unemployment than the headcount rate, the government's official measure.>