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Report
Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico
We investigate the economically and statistically significant positive correlation between monthly foreign purchases of Mexican stocks and Mexican stock returns. We find that a 1 percent of market capitalization surprise foreign inflow is associated with a 13 percent increase in Mexican stock prices. We explore whether this correlation might be explained by permanent reductions in conditional expected returns resulting from expansion of the investor base along the lines modeled by Merton (1987), or correlations with other factors causing returns, price pressures, or positive feedback ...
Journal Article
Debt reduction and market reentry under the Brady plan
In March 1989, U.S. Treasury Secretary Brady proposed a new approach to resolving the developing country debt problem and restoring the creditworthiness of restructuring countries. The Brady Plan encouraged market-based reductions in debt and debt service for countries implementing economic reforms. This article analyzes the structure of the financial packages that followed this change in approach and considers their impact on countries and their creditors.
Discussion Paper
Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy
Accordingly, in this note we analyze the drivers of EME capital flows, focusing in particular on the role of U.S. monetary policy and other potential factors in the decline in capital flows to EMEs since 2010.
Report
China’s evolving managed float: an exploration of the roles of the fix and broad dollar movements in explaining daily exchange rate changes
We investigate the drivers of daily changes in the exchange value of the Chinese currency (CNY) since early 2016, when a new regime was introduced for setting the fix?the midpoint of the CNY?s daily trading range against the U.S. dollar. Daily changes in the fix, which is announced just prior to the onset of onshore trading, are shown to be highly predictable and very responsive to the change in the CNY/USD rate during the previous day?s onshore trading session and to changes in dollar cross rates. While highly predictable, the fix is shown to have uneven predictive power for the subsequent ...
Report
Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico
We investigate the economically and statistically significant positive correlation between monthly foreign purchases of Mexican stocks and Mexican stock returns. We find that 1 percent of market capitalization surprise foreign inflow is associated with a 13 percent increase in Mexican stock prices. We explore whether this correlation might be explained by permanent reductions in conditional expected returns resulting from expansion of the investor base along the lines modeled by Merton (1987) or correlations with other factors causing returns, price pressures, or positive feedback strategies ...