Journal Article
New Rules for Credit Default Swap Trading: Can We Now Follow the Risk?
Jacobson, Margaret M.; Carlson, John B. (2014-06)
Credit default swaps, a useful but complex financial innovation of the 1990s, were traded over the counter before the financial crisis. Because of this infrastructure, a very opaque market emerged?and from it, the severe risk imbalances that helped fuel the crisis. Reforms are now being worked out and put in place which will move the majority of credit default swaps transactions to more transparent exchanges. Market participants will be able to see pre-trade and posttrade pricing, and regulators will have access to information that will allow them to monitor risk concentrations as they ...
Economic Commentary , Issue June

Journal Article
Why is the dividend yield so low?
Carlson, John B. (2001-04)
The dividend yield on stocks has dropped sharply over the last decade. Is its drop a consequence of irrational exuberance? This Commentary assesses alternative explanations for the diminished dividend yield.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
The debt burden: what you don't see
Carlson, John B. (1985-05)
An examination of the federal deficit and a discussion of how an increasing debt burden could cause a serious threat to long-term U.S. economic growth.
Economic Commentary , Issue May

Journal Article
Deregulation, money, and the economy
Carlson, John B. (1991-03)
An examination of the behavior of bank deposit yields and a discussion of some implications for deposit variability and for the interpretation of money growth in the wake of deregulation and other changes in the financial industry in the early 1980s.
Economic Commentary , Issue Mar

Journal Article
The recent ascent of stock prices: can it be explained by earnings growth or other fundamentals?
Sargent, Kevin H.; Carlson, John B. (1997-04)
An analysis of the current relationship between stock prices, dividends, earnings, and returns, aimed at examining the causes of the recent stock market surge. It reveals that the markets level cannot be explained by any single fundamental element of standard stock valuation models, but rather manifests optimism about future dividend growth (based on the present record growth in earnings) and a lower expected return (reflecting a diminished risk premium for holding equity).
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 2-12

Journal Article
FOMC communications and the predictability of near-term policy decisions
Craig, Ben R.; Melick, William R.; Higgins, Patrick C.; Carlson, John B. (2006-06)
In February 1994, the FOMC began a new era in transparency, gradually building a communications apparatus that conveys information about the Committee?s decisions and expectations. Has the new apparatus improved the public?s ability to predict FOMC interest rate decisions? New research based on the prices of fed funds futures shows that over the past decade, it has, especially over horizons of two to three months.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun

Working Paper
Do public pension obligations affect state funding costs?
Ergungor, O. Emre; Waiwood, Patricia; Burson, Jean; Carlson, John B. (2013)
States? unfunded pension obligations to their current and retired employees have exploded in recent years to levels that are estimated to be between $750 billion and $4.4 trillion. In theory, this massive debt should have implications for states? ability to meet their financial obligations and a measurable impact on funding costs. Yet, we find no evidence that municipal bond markets are pricing the risks to states? fiscal health arising from these large obligations.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1301

Journal Article
Recent behavior of velocity: alternative measures of money
Byrne, Susan M.; Carlson, John B. (1992-01)
An examination of the relationship between velocity and interest rates for two alternative measures of money, and an analysis of the effects of thrift restructuring on money demand.
Economic Review , Volume 28 , Issue Q I , Pages 2-10

Journal Article
U.S. dependence on foreign saving
Carlson, John B.; Anderson, Gerald H. (1987-09)
An analysis of the determination of foreign investment in U.S. financial markets and suggestions for reducing dependence on foreign savings inflow.
Economic Commentary , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Domestic nonfinancial debt: after three years of monitoring
Carlson, John B. (1986-07)
An examination of the historical and current behavior of domestic nonfinancial debt, with a discussion of B.M. Friedman's theories and an analysis of the recent unexpected surge in debt and its policy implications.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jul