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Journal Article
How do forecasts respond to changes in monetary policy?
Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore look at forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.
Conference Paper
What do budget deficits do?
Working Paper
Imperfect information and staggered price setting
Working Paper
Expectations and the effects of monetary policy
This paper examines the predictive power of shifts in monetary policy, as measured by changes in the real federal funds rate, for output, inflation, and survey expectations of these variables. The authors find that policy shifts have larger effects on actual output than on expected output, suggesting that agents underestimate the effects of policy on aggregate demand. Their results help explain the real effects of monetary policy, and they provide negative evidence on the rationality of expectations.
Conference Paper
Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes
Conference Paper
Hysteresis in unemployment
Hysteresis is central to long-run unemployment movements in many countries. This essay addresses two broad issues. The first is whether there is clear evidence of hysteresis effects. To put it differently, can we reject the hypothesis that the NAIRU, and hence the long run behavior of unemployment, is independent of aggregate demand? The second broad issue is the nature of hysteresis. Through what mechanisms do short-run unemployment movements influence the NAIRU? What determines the strength of these effects in different countries and time periods? What are the implications for monetary ...
Journal Article
What causes inflation?
Journal Article
How costly is disinflation? The historical evidence
Conference Paper
A sticky-price manifesto
Working Paper
Expectations and the effects of monetary policy
This paper examines the predictive power of shifts in monetary policy, as measured by changes in the real federal funds rate, for output, inflation, and survey expectations of these variables. The authors find that policy shifts have larger effects on actual output than on expected output; thus policy predicts errors in output expectations, a violation of rational expectations. Policy shifts do not predict errors in inflation expectations. The authors explain these results with a model in which agents systematically underestimate the effects of policy on aggregate demand. This model helps to ...