Journal Article
America’s Missing Workers Are Primarily Middle Educated
Atkinson, Tyler; Armen, Alan (2017-03)
The labor force participation rate has fallen since 2008, partly due to an aging population and despite a more highly educated one. After accounting for aging, those whose highest educational attainment is a high school diploma, some college or an associate degree have primarily driven the participation decrease.
Economic Letter , Volume 12 , Issue 4 , Pages 1-4

Discussion Paper
Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation
Armen, Alan; Koenig, Evan F. (2015-12)
This note suggests that household wealth growth and a long-forward interest rate can be used to construct a simple and convenient reference standard for assessing the current stance of monetary policy. It shows that the difference between the federal funds rate and this reference interest rate is a powerful predictor of the unemployment rate and inflation, producing real-time forecasts that are competitive with consensus-based forecasts from surveys of forecasting professionals. Moreover, one can understand past FOMC policy actions as efforts to adjust the stance of policy, so measured, in ...
Staff Papers , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Is rising unemployment an early warning of state-level recession?
Atkinson, Tyler; Armen, Alan (2016-07)
Based on experience with national unemployment, analysts have viewed sharply higher state joblessness as signaling possible further deterioration. However, analyses indicate increasing state-level unemployment by itself does not indicate a recession, and that applying rule-of-thumb properties regarding recession to state economies is misguided.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 8 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Navigating by the Stars: The Natural Rate as Economic Forecasting Tool
Armen, Alan; Koenig, Evan F. (2017-02)
Fed policymakers must assess the stance of monetary policy each time they decide whether the target federal funds rate should be changed. Several different benchmark, or ?natural,? interest rates have been suggested for this purpose. The gap between the target funds rate and the natural rate should, in principle, help forecast real economic activity and inflation.
Economic Letter , Volume 12 , Issue 2 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Getting a Jump on Inflation
Armen, Alan; Koenig, Evan F. (2017-08)
Accurate official estimates of Fed policymakers? preferred PCE inflation measure take months, and sometimes years, to become available. A small set of timelier indicators offers realtime power to ?nowcast? PCE inflation. Those indicators provide as much accuracy as initial government estimates and remain informative even after official estimates have been published.
Economic Letter , Volume 12 , Issue 9 , Pages 1-4