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Discussion Paper
Introduction to a Series on Market Liquidity
Adrian, Tobias; Schaumburg, Ernst; Fleming, Michael J. (2015-08-17)
Market participants and policymakers have recently raised concerns about market liquidity?the ability to buy and sell securities quickly, at any time, at minimal cost. Market liquidity supports the efficient allocation of capital through financial markets, which is a catalyst for sustainable economic growth. Changes in market liquidity, whether due to regulation, changes in market structure, or otherwise, are therefore of great interest to policymakers and market participants alike.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150817

Discussion Paper
Has Liquidity Risk in the Treasury and Equity Markets Increased?
Vogt, Erik; Fleming, Michael J.; Adrian, Tobias; Stackman, Daniel (2015-10-06)
Market participants have argued that market liquidity has deteriorated since the financial crisis. However, inspection of common metrics such as bid-ask spreads, market depth, and price impact do not show pronounced reductions in liquidity compared with precrisis levels. In this post, we argue that recent changes in liquidity conditions may best be described in terms of heightened liquidity risk, as opposed to general declines in liquidity levels. We propose a measure that shows liquidity risk has risen in equity and Treasury markets and discuss some factors behind the increase.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20151006a

Report
800,000 Years of Climate Risk
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico; Prasad, Ananthakrishnan; Seneviratne, Dulani; Xiao, Yanzhe (2022-09-01)
We use a long history of global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to estimate the conditional joint evolution of temperature and CO2 at a millennial frequency. We document three basic facts. First, the temperature–CO2 dynamics are non-linear, so that large deviations in either temperature or CO2 concentrations take a long time to correct–on the scale of multiple millennia. Second, the joint dynamics of temperature and CO2 concentrations exhibit multimodality around historical turning points in temperature and concentration cycles, so that prior to the start of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1031

Report
Risk appetite and exchange Rates
Shin, Hyun Song; Etula, Erkko; Adrian, Tobias (2009)
We present evidence that the growth of U.S.-dollar-denominated banking sector liabilities forecasts appreciations of the U.S. dollar, both in-sample and out-of-sample, against a large set of foreign currencies. We provide a theoretical foundation for a funding liquidity channel in a global banking model where exchange rates fluctuate as a function of banks? balance sheet capacity. We estimate prices of risk using a cross-sectional asset pricing approach and show that the U.S. dollar funding liquidity forecasts exchange rates because of its association with time-varying risk premia. Our ...
Staff Reports , Paper 361

Discussion Paper
Treasury Term Premia: 1961-Present
Moench, Emanuel; Mills, Benjamin; Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K. (2014-05-12)
Treasury yields can be decomposed into two components: expectations of the future path of short-term Treasury yields and the Treasury term premium. The term premium is the compensation that investors require for bearing the risk that short-term Treasury yields do not evolve as they expected. Studying the term premium over a long time period allows us to investigate what has historically driven changes in Treasury yields. In this blog post, we estimate and analyze the Treasury term premium from 1961 to the present, and make these estimates available for download here.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140512

Report
Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability
Liang, J. Nellie; Adrian, Tobias (2014-09-01)
We review a growing literature that incorporates endogenous risk premiums and risk taking in the conduct of monetary policy. Accommodative policy can create an intertemporal trade-off between improving current financial conditions and increasing future financial vulnerabilities. In the United States, structural and cyclical macroprudential tools to reduce vulnerabilities at banks are being implemented, but they may not be sufficient because activities can migrate and there are limited tools for nonbank intermediaries and for borrowers. While monetary policy itself can influence ...
Staff Reports , Paper 690

Report
Pricing the term structure with linear regressions
Moench, Emanuel; Adrian, Tobias (2008)
We estimate the time series and cross section of bond returns by way of three-stage ordinary least squares, which we label dynamic Fama-MacBeth regressions. Our approach allows for estimation of models with a large number of pricing factors. Even though we do not impose yield cross-equation restrictions in the estimation, we show that our bond return regressions generate a term structure of interest rates with small yield errors when compared with commonly reported specifications. We uncover specifications that give rise to lower pricing errors than do commonly advocated specifications, both ...
Staff Reports , Paper 340

Report
Macroprudential policy: case study from a tabletop exercise
Zlate, Andrei; de Fontnouvelle, Patrick; Yang, Emily; Adrian, Tobias (2015-09-01)
Since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, policymakers and academics around the world have advocated the use of prudential tools for macroprudential purposes. This paper presents a macroprudential tabletop exercise that aimed at confronting Federal Reserve Bank presidents with a plausible, albeit hypothetical, macro-financial scenario that would lend itself to macroprudential considerations. In the tabletop exercise, the primary macroprudential objective was to reduce the likelihood and severity of possible future financial disruptions associated with the hypothetical overheating ...
Staff Reports , Paper 742

Report
Vulnerable growth
Giannone, Domenico; Boyarchenko, Nina; Adrian, Tobias (2016-09-29)
We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth, leading the lower quantiles of GDP growth to vary with financial conditions and the upper quantiles to be stable over time: Upside risks to GDP growth are low in most periods while downside risks increase as financial conditions become tighter. We argue that amplification mechanisms in the financial sector generate the observed growth ...
Staff Reports , Paper 794

Discussion Paper
Introduction to a Series on Market Liquidity: Part 2
Adrian, Tobias; Schaumburg, Ernst; Fleming, Michael J. (2015-10-05)
Market participants and policymakers have raised concerns about the potential adverse effects of financial regulation on market liquidity?the ability to buy and sell securities quickly, at any time, at minimal cost. Market liquidity supports the efficient allocation of capital through financial markets, which is a catalyst for sustainable economic growth. Changes in market liquidity, whether due to regulation or other forces, are therefore of great interest to policymakers and market participants alike.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20151005

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