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Speech
Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality
Daly, Mary C. (2024-06-24)
Speech to Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, San Francisco, CA, June 24, 2024, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Journal Article
Assessing Labor Market Conditions Using High-Frequency Data
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Isaacson, Maggie (2021-10-18)
When the COVID-19 pandemic struck in March 2020, the U.S. economy experienced a sharp, unexpected recession with large employment losses. The information on employment available from traditional data sources arrives with a lag and does not promptly reflect sudden changes in labor market conditions. In this article, we discuss how new high-frequency data from Homebase and Ultimate Kronos Group can offer critical information on the state of labor markets in real time. Using these datasets, we construct coincident employment indices to assess employment at a high frequency. Employment during the ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 461-476

Working Paper
Some Like It Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy
Moore, Robert E.; Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2018-06-01)
This paper explores evidence for positive hysteresis in the labor market. Using data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, we find that negative labor market outcomes during high unemployment periods are mitigated by exposure to a high-pressure economy during the preceding expansion. Breaking total exposure into intensity and duration suggests that these two dimensions have differing impacts. However, the benefits of exposure are not enough to overcome the greater negative impact of high unemployment periods on labor market outcomes of disadvantaged groups, making extension of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-1

Labor Force Exits and COVID-19: Who Left, and Are They Coming Back?
Gregory, Victoria; Steinberg, Joel (2021-10-04)
Millions of workers are still unemployed or have dropped out of the labor force. What is the likelihood that these people will return to work in the coming year?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Comparing Pandemic Unemployment to Past U.S. Recoveries
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2021-11-29)
Unemployment fell at a slow and steady rate in the 10 cyclical recoveries from 1949 through 2019. These historical patterns also apply to the recovery from the pandemic recession after accounting for the unprecedented burst of temporary layoffs early in the pandemic followed by their rapid reversal from April to November 2020. Unemployment for other reasons—which has been most important in other recent recoveries—did not start declining until November 2020. Since then, unemployment for other reasons has declined at a faster pace than its historical average.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 33 , Pages 05

Journal Article
COVID-19 Containment Measures, Health and the Economy
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2021-02-19)
While COVID-19-related restrictions in 2020 spurred short-term rises in unemployment, states with stricter measures saw faster labor market recoveries.
The Regional Economist , Volume 29 , Issue 1

Working Paper
Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Valletta, Robert G. (2020-05-05)
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on reported job search activity. We assess potential unemployment paths based on historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique features of the virus economy. The possible paths vary widely, but absent ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-18

Newsletter
Exploring the Dynamics of Unemployment
Caceres-Santamaria, Andrea J. (2024-05)
Unemployment dynamics influence people’s reasons for entering the labor market and their behavior within it. This article uses Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Population Survey (CPS) data to examine labor market trends and the experiences of new entrants, re-entrants, job leavers, and job losers, highlighting how each group's behavior differs over time and during economic downturns. It emphasizes the impact of recessions on overall unemployment rates and cyclical sensitivity: This understanding can help policymakers and businesses make informed decisions and foster growth while ...
Page One Economics Newsletter

Journal Article
Challenges with Estimating U Star in Real Time
Tasci, Murat (2019-11)
Although the concept of the natural rate of employment, NAIRU, or ?U star? is used to measure the amount of slack in the labor market, it is an unobservable quantity that must be estimated using data currently available. This Commentary investigates the degree to which our estimates of U star at various points in the current business cycle have changed as real-time data have been revised and as more data points have accumulated. I find that the availability of additional data has contributed to a significant change in our estimates of U star at earlier points in the business cycle, a result ...
Economic Commentary , Issue November

Briefing
Authorization to Work: The Prevalence of Occupational Licensing in New England
Jackson, Osborne; Sexton, Matthew (2024-10-02)
Proponents of occupational licensing—a policy that requires workers to obtain a government-awarded credential before they can legally practice certain professions—argue that it can reduce safety risks to consumers and improve the general quality of goods and services. Opponents argue that, given the mixed evidence of the policy’s benefits to consumers, it may needlessly impede workers’ ability to enter some professions. This Regional Brief examines the prevalence of occupational licensing in New England and considers the implications for the region’s labor markets and product ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2024-4

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